Pellucid Corp. reports that 2005 closed with net favorable weather at the Total US level compared to 2004. For the month of December, Pellucid’s measure of Golf Playable Hours (GPH) was 4.6% higher than December 2004. That positive performance ensured that the full year weather comparison remained in positive territory with GPHs finishing up 1.6% for 2005. It also marked the third consecutive favorable month’s performance and continuing favorable comparisons to 2004 that extend back to July. Looking back to recently-reported rounds demand figures for November from Golf Datatech, national level rounds outperformed weather for the first time this year with a 10.4% increase creating a weather-adjusted rounds index for the month of 204.
Recognizing that weather at the national level belies the range of positive and negative results by regions, states and markets, it’s nonetheless valuable in determining the extent to which weather either aided or deterred rounds demand at a macro level. Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver remarks on some of the underlying themes affecting the national results, "With half the country shut down for the winter, the weather information is now heavily influenced by the sunbelt states where we saw double-digit gains in GPH across all three of the California reporting regions. Florida and Texas also had positive Decembers which added to their year-to-date (YTD) increases coming into the month. Positive results for 2005 were widespread with the breadth indicator showing 12 regions finishing with higher GPHs vs. 2004 against 6 decliners producing a breadth ratio of exactly 2:1."
For key state geographies where direct comparisons between GPH and rounds changes can be made, rounds have generally followed weather in direction (up or down) but, as anticipated, there is no linear correlation between the weather and rounds results. For example, the state of Texas through November had 9% more GPHs yet showed only a 6% increase in rounds. These "gaps" (which can be either favorable or unfavorable) provide the first quantitative roadmap at regional level to situations where we’ve either outperformed or underperformed what Mother Nature has given us.
Summarizing their first year of monthly regional weather tracking, Koppenhaver concludes, "Contrary to previous industry opinion, it appears that weather at a national level cannot be divined by simply summarizing all the isolated bad weather situations across the year. It appears that for every negative influence there is generally an unheralded corresponding positive influence somewhere reducing the volatility of the weather variable across annual periods. By studying both local and macro results, we can paint a more accurate picture for serious business people regarding which direction and to what extent variances in weather helped or hurt them throughout the year."
The Regional Weather Impact Tracking report, which provides current month and YTD results for the 24 Pellucid-defined weather-based geographies, is the entry-level application in Pellucid’s suite of Weather Impact reports for golf facilities. Local market and individual facilities analysis capabilities include the10-Year Weather Impact Trend and the Annual Weather Impact Analysis report available as either individual reports or as a group at a discount.
Interested parties can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com. For more specific information on the Regional Weather Impact Tracking report and to receive a sample, interested parties should contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
