Pellucid Corp. reports that Mother Nature continued to smile favorably upon the golf industry in the 3rd quarter with Golf Playable Hours (GPH) up 6.2% for the quarter. Following the trends set by the industry since June however, the industry lags the favorable weather with flat-to-slightly-declining rounds performance.
September weather results for GPH were +7.8% capping off a very favorable 3rd quarter in which every month recorded gains vs. 2005. Part of the Q3 favorability however was driven by very low ’05 numbers, particularly in the Gulf Coast in the wake of Katrina. The regional breadth ratio, which measures how widespread geographically the trends are, was 5.3:1 indicating that the weather good fortune was shared by many regions rather than being driven by large swings in a few key regions. The weather results are weighted by rounds contribution which recognizes that favorable weather in key states like California, Florida and Texas has more of an impact than favorable weather in Montana. A key pattern emerging looking at the regional performance is everything east of the Mississippi is having a considerably favorable weather year while the West Coast and the Southwest are seeing only moderate increases in weather favorability.
August Year-to-Date rounds results which can now be compared to the recently-released Golf Datatech figures, show the industry performance gap relative to favorable weather continued to decline now standing at a deficit of 3.3 points. Based on the 2005 national annual rounds results, each deficit point of rounds to GPH means the industry missed an opportunity of 510,000 rounds. If the current trend continues, our inability to capitalize on the 2006 weather will equate to roughly 1.7MM rounds!
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, "While we were very optimistic in reporting the favorable rounds performance vs. weather up until June, the relatively weak performance of the industry in the key summer months suggests that we’re still struggling as an industry with the issue of how to consistently generate rounds demand. The flat rounds performance in the key Jun-Sep period in the face of continued favorable weather will make it challenging for the industry to hold the full year Utilization Rate vs. 2005. September will be a key month to watch rounds, especially in light of the fact that we already know the weather results were positive vs. 2005."
More detail on the results from national level down to individual facility can be obtained through combinations of Pellucid’s Weather Impact Analyses: The Regional Weather Impact Tracking report, the Facility 10-year Weather Impact Trend report, the Facility Annual Weather Impact Analysis and the Facility Monthly Weather Impact Tracking report at prices beginning under $100 per facility.
Koppenhaver concludes, "Looking at rounds performance without weather factoring is like watching a 3-D movie with no glasses. It looks interesting but you can’t quite understand the story. While it looks like we’re headed to another year of relatively flat rounds demand (+/-1% vs. 2005), the true measure of our industry’s health on this dimension is % Utilization which will be hard pressed to remain at 2005 levels given the summer results."
Interested parties can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com. For more specific information on the Regional Weather Impact Tracking report and to receive a sample, interested parties should contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com