Pellucid reports that March’s weather posted a 21% decline in Golf Playable Hours (GPH) for the month compared to the same period last year. This negative month sets up a roller coaster pattern for the first three months of the year (down, up, down) with the quarter finishing 10% lower in GPH vs. the same period in 2007.
Using Pellucid’s refined tracking for 2008 which now breaks the country into 45 regions defined by latitude, elevation and maritime influence 24 regions saw a decline of 2% or greater in GPH for the year-to-date (YTD)compared to 12 showing increases of 2% or more. Rounding out the picture were 7 regions in the neutral zone (+/-2% vs. YA) and the remaining 2 regions still not “open” according to Pellucid’s weather rules. This creates a negative breadth ratio of 2:1 driving the national YTD figure. It’s important to note that in the ”cold season” climate regions there are large fluctuations in percent change during the first quarter which should start to level out as the rest of the country comes into the golfing season in Q2. Looking back at February’s weather results vs. Golf Datatech’s recently released rounds results, the industry registered a 45% Utilization Rate for the month compared to the 2007 national benchmark of 52%. This means that, although rounds recorded a healthy increase of 10% for the month, we lagged the 28% increase in GPH. Encouragingly, for the first two months our 3% increase in rounds matches the 3% increase in GPH giving us 52% Utilization or even with the 2007 mark achieved.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, ”The March decline in GPH suggests that the rounds played numbers will also tack downward when released next month. The see-saw battle we see playing out in Q1 weather will most probably be the pattern of our year with a challenging economic situation although our weather forecast for the year suggests that we’ll finish the gyrations in a slightly up position come December. Being able to separate the weather component of rounds performance will be especially critical this year in order to determine how recession-resistant golf really is.”
More detail on the results from national to individual facility level can be obtained through combinations of Pellucid’s Weather Impact Analyses: The Regional Weather Impact Tracking report, the Facility 10-year Weather Impact Trend report, the Facility Annual Weather Impact Analysis and the Facility Monthly Weather Impact Tracking report.
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on the Regional Weather Impact Tracking and a sample report, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
