Pellucid reports that May’s national weather was very similar to 2007, posting a 1% decline in Golf Playable Hours (GPH) for the month compared to the same period last year. This statistically flat month breaks the previously consistent up-down monthly pattern in 2008 and left the year-to-date (YTD) results unchanged, with GPH remaining 1% lower through the end of May vs. the same period in 2007.
The interesting development in the May month and YTD results is a meaningful negative breadth ratio across Pellucid’s 45 regions however the national aggregate remains neutral vs. year ago. The YTD breadth ratio deteriorated to 1:2 with 12 regions posting increases of 2% or more in GPH opposed by 24 regions with GPH decreases of 2% or more (the remaining 9 regions are in the neutral zone or +/-2%). What this means is positive weather is benefiting almost all of the key rounds-producing regions (CA, TX, AZ and SE Coast) while being offset by weather unfavorability in most of the lower rounds-producing regions.
Looking back at April’s weather results vs. Golf Datatech’s recently released rounds results, the industry registered a 48% Utilization Rate for the month compared to the 2007 national benchmark of 52%. This means that the 2% increase in rounds underperformed the 11% increase in GPH for the month. That puts the industry for the first 4 months of the year right back where it started (giving back a previously slight utilization improvement) at a national Utilization Rate of 52%.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “My bet back in April was that we’d see a rounds increase behind the favorable weather so I would’ve won the bet but we didn’t get the desired outcome. To hold Utilization Rate at the national level, we needed a 6% increase in rounds so we fell short of capitalizing fully on Mother Nature’s beneficence for the month. What’s unfolding here is a tale of two markets; operators in the key rounds regions have had the benefit of favorable weather for the early part of the calendar year and part of their peak season. For the other geographies, Pellucid’s HQ in Chicago for example (-5% YTD), it’s been a slow weather start for the critical first couple of months in their season. That said, I’ve learned from experience not to make early or snap judgments on initial results and there’s still lots of golf to be played as it relates to weather and its impact on the 2008 summer golf season.”
More detail on the results from national to individual facility level can be obtained through combinations of Pellucid’s Weather Impact Analyses: The Regional Weather Impact Tracking report, the Facility 10-year Weather Impact Trend report, the Facility Annual Weather Impact Analysis and the Facility Monthly Weather Impact Tracking report.
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on the Regional Weather Impact Tracking and a sample report, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
