Pellucid reports that June’s national weather once again landed in the “neutral zone” posting a 1% decline in Golf Playable Hours (GPH) for the month compared to the same period last year. This statistically flat month creates a new trend of relative calm at the national level which began in May and left the year-to-date (YTD) results also in the neutral zone with GPH remaining 2% lower through the end of June vs. the same period in 2007.
The national “calm” however represents a wide range of regional results which continue to show a negative YTD breadth ratio across Pellucid’s 45 regions at 1:2.5. This means that 10 regions are showing GPH gains for the year of 2% or more opposed by 25 regions with GPH decreases of 2% or more (the remaining 10 regions are in the neutral zone or +/-2%). The fact that the national GPH remains relatively flat despite significant negative breadth means that the favorable weather is concentrated in the highest rounds-producing regions while the unfavorable weather is generally occurring in the lower rounds-producing regions (that’s a good thing, except if you’re in the lower rounds, poorer weather regions). Also not fully reflected in these results is significant and long-lasting weather impact such as the floods in the Midwest which took a meaningful number of courses offline for extended periods of time.
Looking back at May’s weather results vs. Golf Datatech’s recently released rounds results, the industry registered a 50% Utilization Rate for the month compared to the 2007 national benchmark of 52%. This means that the 5% decline in rounds was greater than the 1% decrease in GPH for the previous month. That puts the industry for the first 5 months statistically flat on the Utilization Rate measure (51% Utilization YTD vs. the 2007 benchmark of 52%).
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “The industry is benefiting from stabilization on several key fronts including weather and supply growth. Despite that, rounds remain sluggish and we’re not seeing much pricing power either most probably driven by a shaky macro economic picture for many consumers (apologies to those who believe that golf is recession-proof). One of the other factors we’re seeing emerge in conversations with our Weather Impact clients comparing GPH to rounds played is that Pellucid’s current system tracks “playable” hours but they’re seeing an unfavorable mix of “acceptable” hours vs. “prime” hours (i.e. outside the optimal conditions of moderate temperature, clear skies and relatively little wind). We’re continuing to work with progressive-thinking operators to determine if this component of weather’s impact on rounds can be accurately tracked and quantified.”
More detail on the results from national to individual facility level can be obtained through combinations of Pellucid’s Weather Impact Analyses: The Regional Weather Impact Tracking report, the Facility 10-year Weather Impact Trend report, the Facility Annual Weather Impact Analysis and the Facility Monthly Weather Impact Tracking report.
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to “controllable” vs. “uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on the Regional Weather Impact Tracking and a sample report, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
