Pellucid reports that July’s national weather once again landed in the “neutral zone” posting a 1% increase in Golf Playable Hours (GPH) for the month compared to the same period last year. This statistically flat month continues the trend of relative calm at the national level which began in May and left the year-to-date (YTD) results also in the neutral zone with GPH remaining 1% lower through the end of July vs. the same period in 2007.
The national “calm” however represents a wide range of regional results which continue to show a negative YTD breadth ratio across Pellucid’s 45 regions at 1:2.4. This means that 9 regions are showing GPH gains for the year of 2% or more opposed by 22 regions with GPH decreases of 2% or more (the remaining 14 regions are in the neutral zone or +/-2%). The story underneath the national calm however was a month of double-digit declines in GPH in Central and South Texas while North Texas had a relatively benign 2% drop of its own. Florida, the Rocky Mountain regions and the Desert SW regions all had favorable weather results which served to offset the Texas declines while the rest of the country was relatively flat vs. July 2007.
Looking back at the previously-reported June weather results vs. the newly-minted industry alliance for rounds information (Golf Datatech, NGF, PGA of America and the NGCOA) for June produces a monthly % Utilization Rate of 52% or dead even with the 2007 national benchmark of 52%. This means that the 2% decline in rounds was commensurate to the 2% decrease in GPH last month. That also leaves the industry for the first 6 months statistically flat on the % Utilization Rate measure (52% Utilization YTD vs. the 2007 benchmark of 52%).
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “As we enter the summer months and settle into prime temperatures for the majority of the country, we’ve historically seen this leveling of GPH in June, July and August impacted only by significant rain patterns which are noticeably absent thusfar across most of the US heartland. From an optimist’s standpoint, given that YTD weather has been a national non-factor, the fact that rounds played haven’t suffered any more than down 2% seems to suggest that play is bucking the negative macro-economic trend and holding its own. On the other hand, for the significant number of operators who are extended financially and needing a rounds and revenue bounce, saying it’s not as bad as it could be is not very encouraging. For the most part, operators experiencing success in 2008 are doing it the old-fashioned way, they’re earning it (apologies to Smith Barney).”
More detail on the results from national to individual facility level can be obtained through combinations of Pellucid’s Weather Impact Analyses: The Regional Weather Impact Tracking report, the Facility 10-year Weather Impact Trend report, the Facility Annual Weather Impact Analysis and the Facility Monthly Weather Impact Tracking report.
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on the Regional Weather Impact Tracking and a sample report, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
