Pellucid reports that September’s national weather came in statistically dead even in Golf Playable Hours (GPH) at +.5% compared to the same period last year. This flat month nonetheless closes a favorable 3rd quarter of weather which recorded a 5% increase in GPH vs. Q3 ’07. For the Sept. Year-to-Date (YTD) period, GPH remained in the “neutral zone” compared to last year at +1.2% vs. 2007.
The flat weather month extends Mother Nature’s similarity streak to 2007 and provided neither a headwind nor tailwind to the country as a whole to generate more golf rounds. The regional breadth ratio (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down) remained in negative territory at 1:1.9. This means that 10 regions are showing GPH gains for the year of 2% or more opposed by 19 regions with GPH decreases of 2% or more (the remaining 16 regions are in the neutral zone or +/-2%). The silver lining to that cloud is that although the breadth indicator is negative, the positive national GPH results mean the more broad unfavorable weather is happening in the lower rounds producing regions. Positive double-digit results for the month were recorded in Florida South while meaningful declines were experienced in the Florida North, Gulf Coast and South Texas regions.
Looking back at the previously-reported July weather results vs. the recently-released industry alliance rounds played information (Golf Datatech, NGF, PGA of America and the NGCOA) shows a noticeable drop of 4 points to a monthly % Utilization Rate of 47%. This means that the 4% increase in rounds was considerably less than Pellucid’s previously-reported increase in GPH for the month of 15%.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “We opened the month with multiple hurricane events occurring in the Gulf Coast which were obviously detrimental to the Gulf Coast and South Texas regions. We also saw significant rainfall and flooding in areas up through the Midwest which put us behind early in the month. That said however, human nature is to remember the few significant events and forget the balance of the month which was unusually temperate and dry for much of the country which is reflected in the relatively flat performance overall for the month. This underscores why a systematic, rules-based approach is the only way to measure weather’s impact and not relying on course personnel to either interpret or recall the weather conditions over extended periods of time. This data at the individual facility level should be part of a balanced scorecard to determine the key measures of % Utilization and Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR) both of which rely on an accurate and unbiased Capacity Rounds denominator which we’ve refined over the years.”
More detail on the results from national to individual facility level can be obtained through combinations of Pellucid’s Weather Impact Analyses: The Regional Weather Impact Tracking report, the Facility 10-year Weather Impact Trend report, the Facility Annual Weather Impact Analysis and the Facility Monthly Weather Impact Tracking report. Facility-level weather impact is now also a component of Pellucid’s Initial Facility Analysis offering which provides a 3-dimensional view of the local market health, weather impact (both recent and the benchmark 10-yr norm) and customer franchise health as a foundation for fall marketing plan refinements or upcoming annual planning.
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on the Regional Weather Impact Tracking and a sample report, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
