Car sales fell, retailers experienced soft holiday sales and banks failed in the 2nd half of 2008 so it’s no surprise that Mother Nature followed suit with a disappointing 4th quarter of -6% in Golf Playable Hours. December’s national weather showed another meaningful decline in Golf Playable Hours (GPH), down 6% compared to the same period last year. The unfavorable weather month dragged the December Year-to-Date (YtD) results down yet again to -0.1% compared to the same period in 2007 (still statistically neutral).
The regional breadth ratio (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down) remained in negative territory at 1:2.2. This is comprised of 10 regions showing GPH gains for the year of 2% or more opposed by 22 regions with GPH decreases of 2% or more (the remaining 13 regions are in the neutral zone or +/-2%). The neutral YtD national GPH results, coupled with the negative breadth indicator, mean that the more broad unfavorable weather is happening in the lower rounds-producing regions. Year-to-Date, key geographies had generally favorable weather including Southern CA (+4%), Phoenix (+5%), Florida (+3% and +10%) while Texas and the Ohio Valley were hampered by unfavorable weather.
Looking back at the previously-reported November weather results vs. the recently-released industry alliance rounds played information (Golf Datatech, NGF, PGA of America and the NGCOA) showed a flat reading for the key measure of % Utilization Rate (UR) at 52%. This means that the negative rounds results (-7%) reported for the month matched the GPH decline of 7% previously reported by Pellucid. For the YtD, Utilization rate still lagged the ’07 year-end mark of 52% by 1 point.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “The national picture is the collision of a wide range of favorable and unfavorable local market and state results. Not surprisingly, destination markets are taking significant rounds hits that aren’t related to weather (Vegas -9% in rounds, +2% in GPH, Hilton Head – 14% in rounds, flat in weather etc.). The one exception to this trend is Orlando which is showing a nice 3% gain in rounds (aided however by a +10% increase in GPH). For the most part, the more local mainstay golf geographies like the Midwest, Texas and Northeast are showing rounds declines but most are pretty correlated to modest declines in GPH. We’re currently working on matching our weather tracking to the market/state geographies reported by industry coalition in order to provide market-level % Utilization Rate in 2009 which we’ll unveil at the State of the Industry presentation in Orlando later this month. As the relatively poor financials for many facilities in 2008 begin to roll in, we’re seeing more interest from the economic owners to better understand which of those losses are due to weather impact and which are operationally-driven. The smarter facility operators want to know and quantify that answer before the owners figure it out.”
More detail on the results from national to individual facility level can be obtained through combinations of Pellucid’s Weather Impact Analyses: The Regional Weather Impact Tracking report, the Facility 10-year Weather Impact Trend report, the Facility Annual Weather Impact Analysis and the Facility Monthly Weather Impact Tracking report. Facility-level weather impact is now also a component of Pellucid’s Initial Facility Analysis offering which provides a 3-dimensional view of local market health, weather impact (both recent and the benchmark 10-yr norm) and customer franchise health as a foundation for marketing plan refinements or upcoming annual planning.
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on the Regional Weather Impact Tracking including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
