January’s weather started in positive territory for those regions above freezing and snowless. At the national level, January’s Golf Playable Hours (GPH) were up 3% compared to the same period last year. Given that it’s the first month of the year, and for all you statistically-challenged out there, the January Year-to-Date (YtD) results are one in the same.
The regional breadth ratio (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down) started in netural territory at 1:1.1. This is comprised of 11 regions showing GPH gains for the year of 2% or more opposed by 12 regions with GPH decreases of 2% or more (the remaining 22 regions are either in the neutral zone of +/-2% or not open for business yet). This paints a relatively balanced picture of positive GPH on neutral breadth (in other words, positive regions produce slightly more rounds than the negative regions). Year-to-Date, key winter geographies of Northern FL and Northern CA fared well while the southeastern seaboard continued their 2008 unfavorable weather streak.
Looking back at the previously-reported December weather results vs. the recently-released industry alliance rounds played information showed a slight gain for the key measure of % Utilization Rate (UR) at 52.5%. This means that the negative rounds results (-7%) reported for the month were slightly better than the GPH decline of 8% previously reported by Pellucid. For the YtD, the UR held its own finishing only fractions of a point below the ’07 year-end mark of 52%.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “There’s not much to say about the January results, other than it’s one notch in the “win” column which we’ll take. Looking back at the December results, while dropping 7% in rounds isn’t the desired outcome, the fact that those results simply mirrored weather are reason to stay the course on programs and marketing plans through Q1 of ’09 vs. panicking and changing course. It was also interesting to note that the Industry Alliance rounds results were slightly more pessimistic than the PGA of America PerformanceTrak results (-2% vs. -1%). The other interesting observation on the PerformanceTrak results is that they showed the average 18-hole velocity to come in for the year at 28K rounds which seems light relative to historical calculations that would put that number closer to 33K rds/EHE.”
More detail on the results from national to individual facility level can be obtained through combinations of Pellucid’s Weather Impact Analyses: The Regional Weather Impact Tracking report, the Facility 10-year Weather Impact Trend report, the Facility Annual Weather Impact Analysis and the Facility Monthly Weather Impact Tracking report. Facility-level weather impact is now also a component of Pellucid’s Initial Facility Analysis offering which provides a 3-dimensional view of local market health, weather impact (both recent and the benchmark 10-yr norm) and customer franchise health as a foundation for marketing plan refinements or upcoming annual planning.
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to “controllable” vs. “uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on the Regional Weather Impact Tracking including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
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