February’s weather backed off slightly compared to last year after January’s solid, positive start. At the national level, February’s Golf Playable Hours (GPH) were off 1.8% compared to the same period last year. Following January’s increase in GPH of just under 3%, the February dip brings the Year-to-Date (YtD) weather impact back to neutral (+0.3%).
The regional breadth ratio (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down) continued in neutral territory at 1:1. Refining their methodology, for the 1st quarter Pellucid is only tracking the “open” regions in the breadth measure. This results in a scorecard of 6 regions showing GPH gains for the year of 2% or more opposed by 6 regions with GPH decreases of 2% or more (leaving the remaining 6 “open” regions in neutral territory and 27 regions not open for business yet). This suggests that the opening two months of the year at a national level in GPH and regional breadth are “steady as she goes.” Looking at the regional map of weather “winners” and “losers” through February shows Texas continuing to be smiled upon while Mother Nature has thus far frowned on the Atlantic and Pacific NW Coastal areas.
Looking back at the previously-reported January weather results vs. the recently-released industry alliance rounds played information provides some good news (for a change). Even though weather was a positive factor for the month (GPH +3% vs. year ago), the solid rounds gain of nearly 9% means that we beat the weather at the national level. This results in a significant gain for the key measure of % Utilization Rate (UR) to 51% for the month vs. the 2008 benchmark rate of 49%. Pellucid is also introducing, beginning in February, a key market weather and utilization report that provides monthly updates on these two measures across 40+ US markets. As a sneak preview, LA & Orange County were market winners with increased Utilization while Atlanta was a notable loser in January.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “It’s still early in the game but, compared to Bernie Madoff going to jail and GM going out of business, we’re the epitome of health right now. The full-year forecast calls for national GPH to be down 3% so there’s still choppy water ahead as it relates to weather (unless we and our weather partner blow the forecast). The headlines on January’s results though are, ‘Weather was good, we were better.’ PerformanceTrak is showing that median revenue per round played was statistically flat which suggests we didn’t necessarily buy those rounds results either. Overall, if each of our data points is accurate, there’s nothing to not like yet at the national level (standard disclaimer, national results are not necessarily indicative of local market results, your mileage may vary).”
More detail on the results from national to regional to market and even individual facility level can be obtained through combinations of Pellucid’s Weather Impact Analyses: The Regional Weather Impact Tracking report, the Facility 10-year Weather Impact Trend report, the Facility Annual Weather Impact Analysis and the Facility Monthly Weather Impact Tracking report. In addition to the new market-level Utilization tracking report, Pellucid has also integrated weather impact into their Facility Performance Scorecard (FPS) application for clients using the FORE! Reservations Point-of-Sale system. Combined with the client revenue data, this produces the key measure of RevpAR (revenue per available (capacity) round) which is the single best measure of the financial efficiency of your “factory.”
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to “controllable” vs. “uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on the expanding portfolio of Pellucid Weather Impact reports including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
Covering the business of golf!
