March turned in a double-digit gain in Golf Playable Hours (GPH) compared to 2008. At the national level, March’s GPH were up 14% compared to the same period last year. Combined with the January and February weather results, the 1st quarter finished in positive territory, up 6% vs. Q1 last year. Definitely a much-needed tailwind for rounds production given the current economic and employment headwinds.
The regional breadth ratio (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down) is now positive for the Year-to-Date (YtD) period at 1.3:1. This is comprised of 14 regions up vs. 11 down with the remaining 20 weather-based regions recording either neutral results (+/-2%) or not yet registering any playable hours. This suggests that in addition to the overall favorable 1st quarter, we’re also getting the benefit of that positive weather spread across several regions vs. significant gains confined to one or two regions. Among the key rounds-contributing regions looking across the US, the Eastern Seaboard and Florida North continue in unfavorable weather trends while the Mid-Continental and Ohio Valley regions posted solid gains. The remaining key regions of South Florida, Desert West, Southeast Inland and California Coastal have posted neutral weather results YtD.
Looking back at the previously-reported February weather results vs. the industry alliance rounds played shows that Utilization slipped slightly in February to 48% down just over a point vs. the 2008 national annual benchmark. Breaking this down, we saw a 4% decline in rounds against only a 2% decline in GPH which suggests that weather contributed to the February sluggishness but was not the sole factor. Pellucid continues to refine its next-generation of weather reports, monthly market-level Utilization, for release shortly to better understand the mosaic of markets and performance behind the national picture.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “The March weather results should definitely help the rounds demand when it’s reported. I fear however that a double-digit increase in rounds is unlikely for the month given history which would suggest that we could potentially have a solid increase in rounds (5-7%) and yet see a drop in the key measure of Utilization. That said, most facility owner/operators will welcome the increase in rounds and revenue vs. year-ago and not lose much sleep over the fact that it was only a fraction of the benefit of benign weather we should’ve/could’ve realized. Honestly, were I in their shoes, I don’t think I would behave any differently. We now enter the key 2nd quarter period and will eagerly watch the April weather and rounds data to determine if we can successfully navigate this season with a minimal impact to rounds and revenue given the other extreme forces buffeting every other retail establishment in the US.”
More detail on the results from national to regional to market and even individual facility level can be obtained through combinations of Pellucid’s Weather Impact Analyses: The Regional Weather Impact Tracking report, the Facility 10-year Weather Impact Trend report, the Facility Annual Weather Impact Analysis and the Facility Monthly Weather Impact Tracking report. In addition to the upcoming market-level Utilization tracking report, Pellucid has also integrated weather impact into their Facility Performance Scorecard (FPS) application for clients using the FORE! Reservations Point-of-Sale system. Combined with the client revenue data, this produces the key measure of RevpAR (revenue per available (capacity) round) which is the single best measure of the financial efficiency of your “factory.”
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on the expanding portfolio of Pellucid Weather Impact reports including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
