Pellucid has just released its annual update to the National Consumer Franchise Scorecard headlined as a year of decelerating decline. In advance of the industry association cheerleaders preparing to tout growth in the consumer base due to the new addition of “virtual golfers,” the core historical metric of traditional players (1+ rounds during the year) and their frequency continues to edge down, albeit at a slightly slower rate than the 5-year trend:
• Golfers and Participation Rate – Golfers fractionally down, the smallest annual loss since 2006, Participation Rate hovering just above 7%
• Demographic shifts – Contrary to the mantra that there’s a renaissance among females and juniors, both groups declined by 1-2% for the year. We saw two slight variations in ’17 to the storyline by lifestages as Seniors and Millennials were the contributors to the marginal decline in golfers
• Involvement Level of Golfers – For the second consecutive year, we saw erosion in the Committed golfer group (40+ rds/yr, likely trading down to Involved frequency vs. leaving the game) but this year they were the only decliners while Singles added golfers to offset the loss (that trade-off likely explains the frequency drop)
• 2020 projections for the golfer base size – The softening in the rate of golfer decline adjusts our 2020 projection upward slightly but doesn’t change our projection that, on current trend, we’ll be sub-20M traditional golfers in 2019 unless virtual golf and the various latent demand theories produce some significant number of real feet across real grass
The Excel workbook with the summary and detail figures includes the following facts:
• Core metrics of # of golfers, Participation Rate, Frequency Rate and Play Rate (rds/capita/yr) for ’17, change vs. ’16 (# and %) and 5-yr trend figure
• Involvement groups, size, change and share of total golfers for ’17, comparison to ’16 and 5-yr trend figure
• Demographics, # of golfers, Frequency Rate, Play Rate for ’17 vs. ’16 and 5-yr trend broken out by:
o Gender – male vs. female comparisons
o Age – 8 age groups and 5 summary groups (Juniors, Early Career, Mid-Career, Late Career, Seniors)
o Income – 7 income groups and 3 summary groups (<$35K, $35-$75K, $75K+)
There are two ways to order and obtain the industry’s definitive consumer franchise accounting:
1. Become a Pellucid Publications Member ($495/yr, 40% discount vs. purchasing separately) – PPM subscribers receive all Pellucid publications as part of their annual membership. This includes:
• Outside the Ropes newsletter (in both versions)
• State of the Industry (in both versions)
• Weather Impact Analysis
– PPM: Geographic (Nat’l/Reg’l/Mkts) Weather Impact Tracking
– PPM-Local: Cognilogic web-based weather impact, annual user license (facility-level Golf Playable Hours/Capacity Rounds, from yesterday to 10-yr Norm)
• Market Analysis/Health Ranking
– PPM: Top 25 US Golf Markets Scorecard and Health Ranking
– PPM-Local: Golf Local Market Analysis, data workbook (8-dimensional profile of 3 draw areas around the facility including demographics, # of golfers, participation/frequency/play rate, Rounds Potential Indices (Income, Age, Ethnicity), Supply/Demand balance, Supply distribution, Rounds demand and Velocity (rounds per 18-hole equivalent) by Pellucid 5 facility types
• National Consumer Franchise Health Scorecard; consumer base size, demographics, involvement groups, churn rate, projections for 2020 etc. (in both versions)
2. Purchase the National Consumer Franchise Health Scorecard via our website ($199) – Excel workbook of 4 worksheets as outlined above
The “not-as-bad news” is that industries generally slow in decline prior to heading upward and we’re seeing that pattern. The bad news is we still don’t have any quantitative facts on how low we’ll go or how long it will get to the stabilization point for the consumer base. In the interim, Pellucid’s mission is to arm you with facts, our insights on what they’re telling us and having an unbiased perspective on the good, the bad and the ugly. We’re the reality ballast for the upcoming industry associations’ balloons of hope which will portray the golfer base at 30M+ and wax poetic about the growth of virtual golf. For those interested in a sample of the report, you can use the Register Here for Excel Workbook Sample button on our product information page at this address [https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports/national-golf-consumer-franchise-health-scorecard] and we’ll send it along for your review.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
• Demographic shifts – Contrary to the mantra that there’s a renaissance among females and juniors, both groups declined by 1-2% for the year. We saw two slight variations in ’17 to the storyline by lifestages as Seniors and Millennials were the contributors to the marginal decline in golfers
• Involvement Level of Golfers – For the second consecutive year, we saw erosion in the Committed golfer group (40+ rds/yr, likely trading down to Involved frequency vs. leaving the game) but this year they were the only decliners while Singles added golfers to offset the loss (that trade-off likely explains the frequency drop)
• 2020 projections for the golfer base size – The softening in the rate of golfer decline adjusts our 2020 projection upward slightly but doesn’t change our projection that, on current trend, we’ll be sub-20M traditional golfers in 2019 unless virtual golf and the various latent demand theories produce some significant number of real feet across real grass
The Excel workbook with the summary and detail figures includes the following facts:
• Core metrics of # of golfers, Participation Rate, Frequency Rate and Play Rate (rds/capita/yr) for ’17, change vs. ’16 (# and %) and 5-yr trend figure
• Involvement groups, size, change and share of total golfers for ’17, comparison to ’16 and 5-yr trend figure
• Demographics, # of golfers, Frequency Rate, Play Rate for ’17 vs. ’16 and 5-yr trend broken out by:
o Gender – male vs. female comparisons
o Age – 8 age groups and 5 summary groups (Juniors, Early Career, Mid-Career, Late Career, Seniors)
o Income – 7 income groups and 3 summary groups (<$35K, $35-$75K, $75K+)
There are two ways to order and obtain the industry’s definitive consumer franchise accounting:
1. Become a Pellucid Publications Member ($495/yr, 40% discount vs. purchasing separately) – PPM subscribers receive all Pellucid publications as part of their annual membership. This includes:
• Outside the Ropes newsletter (in both versions)
• State of the Industry (in both versions)
• Weather Impact Analysis
– PPM: Geographic (Nat’l/Reg’l/Mkts) Weather Impact Tracking
– PPM-Local: Cognilogic web-based weather impact, annual user license (facility-level Golf Playable Hours/Capacity Rounds, from yesterday to 10-yr Norm)
• Market Analysis/Health Ranking
– PPM: Top 25 US Golf Markets Scorecard and Health Ranking
– PPM-Local: Golf Local Market Analysis, data workbook (8-dimensional profile of 3 draw areas around the facility including demographics, # of golfers, participation/frequency/play rate, Rounds Potential Indices (Income, Age, Ethnicity), Supply/Demand balance, Supply distribution, Rounds demand and Velocity (rounds per 18-hole equivalent) by Pellucid 5 facility types
• National Consumer Franchise Health Scorecard; consumer base size, demographics, involvement groups, churn rate, projections for 2020 etc. (in both versions)
2. Purchase the National Consumer Franchise Health Scorecard via our website ($199) – Excel workbook of 4 worksheets as outlined above
The “not-as-bad news” is that industries generally slow in decline prior to heading upward and we’re seeing that pattern. The bad news is we still don’t have any quantitative facts on how low we’ll go or how long it will get to the stabilization point for the consumer base. In the interim, Pellucid’s mission is to arm you with facts, our insights on what they’re telling us and having an unbiased perspective on the good, the bad and the ugly. We’re the reality ballast for the upcoming industry associations’ balloons of hope which will portray the golfer base at 30M+ and wax poetic about the growth of virtual golf. For those interested in a sample of the report, you can use the Register Here for Excel Workbook Sample button on our product information page at this address [https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports/national-golf-consumer-franchise-health-scorecard] and we’ll send it along for your review.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
pellucidcorp.com
