May was amazingly flat for Golf Playable Hours (GPH) compared to 2008. At the national level, May’s GPH were up 0.5% compared to the same period last year. That keeps the Year-to-Date (Ytd) weather impact in the neutral zone at +1% vs. the same period in 2008.
Encouragingly, the YtD regional breadth ratio (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down) increased its positive bent to 1.8:1. This is comprised of 21 regions up vs. 12 down with the remaining 12 weather-based regions recording neutral results (+/-2%, all 45 regions are “in play” for May). Among the key rounds-contributing regions for the May YtD period, 5 of them have had significantly favorable weather (up 10%+ in GPH) led by PA West and Ohio Valley (North & South). Significantly unfavorable YtD weather trends (down 10%+) persist among only two key regions, East PA/NY/NJ and Great Lakes West.
Looking back at the previously-reported March weather results vs. the industry alliance rounds played shows that the % Utilization Rate (UR) in April showed nice strength increasing to 51% or a gain of just over 2 points vs. the 2008 national annual benchmark. Breaking this down, we saw a 1% increase in rounds against a 3% decrease in GPH which suggests we were able to eke out a small rounds demand gain in unfavorable national weather. Pellucid’s April market-level % Utilization tracking quantifies the diverse results at local level from the Rounds Up/Utilization Up individual markets (Minneapolis, Dallas etc.) to the Rounds Down/Utilization Down locations (Hawaii, Orlando et. al.).
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “While we saw some nice trends in weather favorability across regions, unfortunately it was in our lower rounds impact areas, hence the national flatness. The April Utilization gain was at least one indicator that the industry isn’t completely at the mercy of Mother Nature as we were able to hold our own against a 3% drop in GPH vs. last year. The relatively new market-level reporting of Utilization is helping us answer an important question for “down” travel markets like Hawaii and Orlando which is, “How much of that decline is weather-related and how much is the current macro, travel and corporate entertainment economics?” I’m sad to report that, contrary to the industry’s standard response, it’s not the weather in most of those markets.” One final point, Pellucid also compiles monthly for our Weather Impact clients the results from PGA PerformanceTrak and April’s Median Green Fee Revenue metric again showed a double-digit decline vs. YA suggesting that we either continue to “buy” some portion of our rounds demand results or that the consumers are simply switching their play habits to different, lower-price playing times (this produces the effect of “discounting” but not because we’re actively promoting discounts).
With the addition of monthly market-level weather and utilization tracking, Pellucid now offers three levels of geography-based reports (US, 45 Regions, 61 Market/States) and three levels of facility-based reports (10-yr annual GPH and trend, the annual snapshot of current, past two and upcoming year with monthly/day-of-week breakouts and a monthly tracking offering). Pellucid also continues to integrate weather impact into their Facility Performance Scorecard (FPS) application for clients using the FORE! Reservations Point-of-Sale system as well as incorporating it into custom research projects and Golf Local Market Analyzer reports as an added module. Combined with the client revenue data, the facility-level reports quantify the key measure of RevpAR (revenue per Available (capacity) Round) which is the single best measure of the financial efficiency of your “factory.”
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
