June turned in another flat performance for Golf Playable Hours (GPH) compared to 2008. At the national level, June’s GPH were up 1.5% compared to the same period last year. That keeps the Year-to-Date (Ytd) weather impact in the neutral zone at +1% vs. the same period in 2008.
Interestingly, the YtD regional breadth ratio (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down) remains positive at 1.4:1. This is comprised of 21 regions up vs. 15 down with the remaining 9 weather-based regions recording neutral results (+/-2% with all 45 regions “in play”). This dichotomy is manifest in the key rounds-contribution regions for the June YtD period. Seven regions are showing weather favorability (up 5%+ in GPH) led by Mid-Continental North and Ohio Valley (both North & South). That weather favorability is being offset by significant weather unfavorability (-5%+) in five key rounds-contribution regions led by East PA/NY/NJ and Florida North.
Looking back at the previously-reported weather results vs. the industry alliance rounds played shows that the May % Utilization Rate (UR) was steady against at 49% or a negligible gain of 0.2 points vs. the 2008 national annual benchmark. Breaking this down, we saw a 1% increase in rounds against a 1% increase in GPH. Pellucid’s May % Utilization tracking also now provides another level of detail tracking 61 markets/states/state groups. The market-level breadth shows 26 geographies up compared to 20 down and 15 in the neutral zone. Leading the “utilization winners” are Cleveland and Columbus OH while North/South Dakota and Minneapolis sit at the bottom of the list as the “utilization biggest losers”.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “As many of the industry cheerleaders have pointed out previously, flat is the new up. We’ve been fortunate this year-to-date with all the other challenges in our industry and the economy in general that we haven’t hit a weather buzzsaw. The new market-level utilization report is quantifying what we’ve known all along; even in tough macroeconomic conditions there are operators and marketers figuring out how to get it done, regardless of weather and other uncontrollable factors. For example, even though most of the Northeast and the Eastern Coast are having unfavorable weather years, markets like Philadelphia (GPH down 9%, rounds down 2%, utilization up 4 points) are finding ways win. On the pricing and revenue side of the equation, PGA PerformanceTrak’s May YtD Executive Summary is showing a 4% decline in Median Golf Fee Revenue and a 2% decline in Median Golf Fee Revenue per Round (slightly higher because they’re reporting a YtD rounds increase of 1%). The monthly trendline in revenue and average rates appears to be declining at a slightly accelerating rate but, compared to previous years with relatively little macroeconomic stress, we’re still holding up on the revenue side relatively well in my opinion. The challenge on the revenue side however is the economic stability of facilities with the key question being, “How many of them can continue going sideways on revenue and for how long?””
With the addition of monthly market-level weather and utilization tracking, Pellucid now offers three levels of geography-based reports (US, 45 Regions, 61 Market/States) and three levels of facility-based reports (10-yr annual GPH and trend, the annual snapshot of current, past two and upcoming year with monthly/day-of-week breakouts and a monthly tracking offering). Pellucid also continues to integrate weather impact into their Facility Performance Scorecard (FPS) application for clients using the FORE! Reservations Point-of-Sale system as well as incorporating it into custom research projects and Golf Local Market Analyzer reports as an added module. Combined with the client revenue data, the facility-level reports quantify the key measure of RevpAR (revenue per Available (capacity) Round) which is the single best measure of the financial efficiency of your “factory.”
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to “controllable” vs. “uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
