Proving once again that “all weather is local”, despite meaningful shifts across markets in Golf Playable Hours (GPH), the sum net total at the national level remained in the neutral zone at -1.7% compared to the same period last year. That brought July’s marginally-positive Year-to-Date (YtD) weather impact back to dead even (0.0%) through August vs. the same period in 2008 (in other words, we’ve played 11 holes of the annual weather round with no result).
Beneath the national calm, the YtD regional breadth ratio (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down) continued its slight decline but remains positive at 1.2:1. This is comprised of 17 regions up vs. 14 down with the remaining 14 weather-based regions recording neutral results (+/-2% with all 45 regions “in play”). Leading the “weather blessed” key rounds-contribution regions for the August YtD period are Mid Continental North, Ohio Valley North and Ohio Valley South with GPH favorability of 5%+. On the “weather challenged” side of the ledger, key rounds-contribution regions PA East/NJ/NY and Northeast US are down in GPH for the YtD period in excess of 5%.
Looking back at the previously-reported weather results vs. the industry alliance rounds played shows that the July % Utilization Rate (UR) inched up slightly to 49% or a negligible gain of 0.3 points vs. the 2008 national annual benchmark (comprised of flat rounds demand against a 1% decrease in GPH). Pellucid’s Market-Level Weather Impact tracking identifies the biggest gainers and losers in % Utilization Rate for 61 markets/states/state groups. The market-level breadth shows 11 geographies up compared to 16 down and 34 in the neutral zone or a slightly negative market-level breadth ratio of 1:1.5. Leading the “utilization winners” are San Antonio and Arkansas while Hawaii and Chicago continue to top the “utilization losers” list for the YtD period.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “It’s somewhat amazing and mathematically improbable that through seven months of the year at the national level we could come back so close to even par on both rounds and weather impact. While there is considerable variance at the regional and market level, in this big lottery which is the national golf rounds and utilization picture, the positives and negatives are cancelling each other out. That said, there’s still interest, value and instruction in tracking and understanding how different markets arrive at gains or losses. For example, our two biggest losers, HI and Chicago, are different stories. Hawaii is down 15% in rounds offset slightly by a 6% drop in GPH. Chicago is up 1% in rounds despite a 12% increase this year in GPH. Both produce a 4-5 point loss in % Utilization.
On the pricing and revenue side of the equation, PGA PerformanceTrak’s July YtD Executive Summary is showing an unyielding decline in Median Golf Fee Revenue (-5%) driven by a continued decrease Median Golf Fee Revenue per Round (-3%). There are variations in this theme across the different facility types but if you want to know those nuances, you’ll have to participate in PerformanceTrak (hint, hint).”
With the addition of monthly market-level weather and utilization tracking, Pellucid now offers three levels of geography-based reports (US, 45 Regions, 61 Market/States) and three levels of facility-based reports (the 10-yr Trend Summary, the Annual Review report and the Monthly Tracking service). Pellucid also continues to integrate weather impact into their Facility Performance Scorecard (FPS) application for clients using the FORE! Reservations Point-of-Sale system as well as incorporating it into custom research projects and Golf Local Market Analyzer reports as an additional dimension. Combined with the client revenue data, the facility-level reports quantify the key measure of RevpAR (Revenue per Available (capacity) Round) which is the single best measure of the financial efficiency of your “factory.”
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
