“No news is good news” for the golf industry in September as the last full season month for the northern climes showed a basically flat +0.4% result in Golf Playable Hours (GPH) for the Total US. That also maintained the “not bad” trend for GPH Year-to-Date (YtD) weather impact at dead even (0.0%) through September vs. the same period in 2008.
Beneath the national calm, the YtD regional breadth ratio (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down) also held steady and remains positive at 1.4:1. This is comprised of 17 regions up vs. 12 down with the remaining 16 weather-based regions recording neutral results (+/-2% with all 45 regions “in play”). Leading the “weather favorable” key rounds-contribution regions for the September YtD period are Mid Continental North and Ohio Valley North with GPH favorability of 5%+. On the “weather challenged” side of the ledger, the only key rounds-contribution region in the red in excess of 5% YtD is PA East/NJ/NY.
Looking back at the previously-reported weather results vs. the industry alliance rounds played, the August % Utilization Rate (UR) remained stubbornly flat at just under 50% with a negligible gain of 0.4 points vs. the 2008 national annual benchmark (comprised of a 1% drop in rounds demand against a 2% decrease in GPH). Pellucid’s Market-Level Weather Impact tracking identifies the biggest gainers and losers in % Utilization Rate for 61 markets/states/state groups. The market-level breadth shows 7 geographies up compared to 11 down and 43 in the neutral zone or a slightly negative market-level breadth ratio of 1:1.6. Leading the “utilization winners” are San Antonio and Houston with YtD % Utilization gains of 4+ pts while Hawaii continues to top the “utilization losers” list at -5 pts.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “Like my golf game where it’s a matter of trying to avoid the “big number” holes, the weather has fortunately not been a big negative factor in the 2009 season. Many markets are seeing only modest swings in weather for the season compared to last year which means the rounds and revenue results are more focused this year on “controllable” factors. For the most part however, among our client base we’re seeing challenges in maintaining rounds with continued pressure on rates which is stymieing revenue growth.
Consistent with our client trends, PGA PerformanceTrak’s August YtD Executive Summary continues to show a 5% decline in Median Golf Fee Revenue driven by a 3% decrease in Median Golf Fee Revenue per Round (rate) and a 2% decrease in rounds (volume). Especially hard hit on both volume and rate is the Resort sector down 15% and 8% respectively for the YtD period.”
With the addition of monthly market-level weather and utilization tracking, Pellucid now offers three levels of geography-based reports (US, 45 Regions, 61 Market/States) and three levels of facility-based reports (the 10-yr Trend Summary, the Annual Review report and the Monthly Tracking service). Pellucid also continues to integrate weather impact into their Facility Performance Scorecard (FPS) application for clients using the FORE! Reservations Point-of-Sale system as well as incorporating it into custom research projects and Golf Local Market Analyzer reports as an additional dimension. Combined with the client revenue data, the facility-level reports quantify the key measure of RevpAR (Revenue per Available (capacity) Round) which is the single best measure of the financial efficiency of the golf “factory.”
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to “controllable” vs. “uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
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