November 11, 2009
October weather took a dramatic turn for the worse as it relates to golf, registering a 10% decline in Golf Playable Hours (GPH) for the Total US vs. October 2008. That made a meaningful dent in the GPH Year-to-Date (YtD) results dropping that figure from flat at the end of September to -1% at the end of October.
The poor golf weather was widespread as only 4 of 45 regions showed positive results. This dragged the YtD breadth ratio (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down) into negative territory at 1:1.5. This is comprised of 11 regions up vs. 16 down with the remaining 18 weather-based regions recording neutral results (+/-2% with all 45 regions “in play”). Leading the “weather favorable” key rounds-contribution regions for the October YtD period are Mid Continental North and Ohio Valley North and South with GPH favorability of 3%+. On the “weather challenged” side of the ledger, four regions slipped into 5%+ declines in GPH for the year, Northeast US, PA East/NJ/NY, Great Lakes West and Gulf Coast.
For the good news story, looking back at the previously-reported weather results vs. the industry alliance rounds played, the September % Utilization Rate (UR) crossed 50% registering a gain of 0.4 points for the month (comprised of a 4% increase in rounds demand against flat GPH for the month). Pellucid’s Market-Level Weather Impact tracking identifies the biggest gainers and losers in % Utilization Rate for 61 markets/states/state groups. The market-level breadth shows 10 geographies up compared to 11 down and 40 in the neutral zone or a slightly negative market-level breadth ratio of 1:1.1. Leading the “utilization winners” are San Antonio and Houston with YtD % Utilization gains of 4+ pts while Hawaii continues to top the “utilization losers” list at -5 pts.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “Let’s start with the good news. In September we experienced the largest “organic growth” month of the entire year with the 4% increase in rounds demand against basically neutral weather. It gives us at least one datapoint that it can be done but whether we can do it across multiple months remains to be seen. On the bad news side, I’m guessing that we’ll be giving most, if not all, of it back in October behind one of the worst weather performance months I’ve seen since we started tracking this. The silver lining in that cloud for the northern climates is that October is not as strong in rounds generation as September so, if you had to pick a one-two punch, this is the right sequence for places like Chicago.
Consistent with our client trends, PGA PerformanceTrak’s September YtD Executive Summary continues to show a 5% decline in Median Golf Fee Revenue driven by a 3% decrease in Median Golf Fee Revenue per Round (rate) and flat rounds demand (volume). The Resort segment continues to be the hardest hit on volume, rate and revenue measures showing down 4%, 10% and 14% respectively for the YtD period.”
With the addition of monthly market-level weather and utilization tracking, Pellucid now offers three levels of geography-based reports (US, 45 Regions, 61 Market/States) and three levels of facility-based reports (the 10-yr Trend Summary, the Annual Review report and the Monthly Tracking service). Pellucid also continues to integrate weather impact into their Facility Performance Scorecard (FPS) application for clients using the FORE! Reservations Point-of-Sale system as well as incorporating it into custom research projects and Golf Local Market Analyzer reports as an additional dimension. Combined with the client revenue data, the facility-level reports quantify the key measure of RevpAR (Revenue per Available (capacity) Round) which is the single best measure of the financial efficiency of the golf “factory.”
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
