Although only a fraction of the US was playing golf in December, the results for our warm climate constituency were unfriendly as the month’s Golf Playable Hours (GPH) were down 10% for the Total US vs. December 2008. That had negligible impact at the US level for the Year-to-Date (YtD) GPH results (+0.7%) but the downward impact in warm climates will undoubtedly show up in the rounds played results for the year.
Looking at the YtD weather impact breadth ratio results (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down), we finished the year with a negative breadth ratio of 1:1.6. This is comprised of 9 regions up vs. 14 down with the remaining 22 weather-based regions recording neutral results. Leading the “weather favorable” key rounds-contribution regions for the year were Mid Continental, Ohio Valley (North, Central and South) and PA West all with GPH favorability of 5%+. On the “weather challenged” side of the ledger, only two key rounds regions finished the year in the GPH deficit range of -3% or more for the year, Florida North and Gulf Coast.
Looking back at the previously-reported November weather results vs. the industry alliance rounds played, the Utilization Rate (UR) was off slightly as anticipated behind very favorable weather during the tail end of the northern season. The month UR was 41% or a drop of 7 points vs. the 2008 year end benchmark (comprised of a 16% increase in rounds demand against a 36% GPH increase for the month). This supports Stuart Lindsay’s “golfers are more like bears than squirrels” theory in that favorable weather early in the season has a much more significant impact on rounds than favorable fall weather. Pellucid’s Market-Level Weather Impact tracking identifies the biggest gainers and losers in UR for 61 markets/states/state groups. The market-level breadth for the November YtD period shows only 5 markets/states up compared to 18 down and 38 in the neutral zone producing an increasingly negative market-level breadth ratio of 1:3.6. Leading the “utilization winners” are Houston, San Antonio and Kansas (+3 pts or >) while Hawaii and Cincinnati finish the year atop the “utilization losers” list (-4 pts or >).
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “December wasn’t kind to the golf industry in the warm weather climates as a whole. It would be a great show of strength for the warmer climates to be able to post anything less than a 5% decline in rounds in December when the results come in. Particularly hard hit in December it appears was Texas, with the North and Central parts seeing double-digit declines in GPH which impacted the YtD results. Another potentially negative factor in December which is not reflected in our GPH measures and metrics would be unseasonably cool (but playable) temperatures in warmer weather climates (we use temperature thresholds, not relative temperatures as the season progresses).” Beneath the national picture there are a number of individual market stories played out in the data and we’ll be sharing more of that insight and information at our upcoming State of the Industry presentations at both the PGA Merchandise and Golf Industry Shows in January and February (RSVP to Jim Koppenhaver if you’d like to attend).”
“Consistent with trends we’ve tracked in our facility clients’ data, PGA PerformanceTrak’s November YtD Executive Summary continues to show a 5% decline in Median Golf Fee Revenue driven by a 4% decrease in Median Golf Fee Revenue per Round (rate) and slightly negative rounds demand (volume). On rounds, the negative results are being driven by the Resort segment. On revenue, the Resort and Private sectors are leading the decline. On rate, the mix changes slightly with Resorts and Daily Fee/Semi-Private driving declines. Among revenue classes at facilities, all categories are showing down but Merchandise is the largest percent loser, down more than 10%.”
With the addition of monthly market-level weather and utilization tracking, Pellucid now offers three levels of geography-based reports (US, 45 Regions, 61 Market/States) and three levels of facility-based reports (the 10-yr Trend Summary, the Annual Review report and the Monthly Tracking service). Pellucid also continues to integrate weather impact into their Facility Performance Scorecard (FPS) application for clients using the FORE! Reservations Point-of-Sale system as well as incorporating it into custom research projects and Golf Local Market Analyzer reports as an additional dimension. Combined with the client revenue data, the facility-level reports quantify the key measure of RevpAR (Revenue per Available (capacity) Round) which is the single best measure of the financial efficiency of the golf “factory.”
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
