Following two dismal weather months opening 2010, golf facilities got some welcome relief as the March Golf Playable Hours (GPH) were up 11% for the Total US vs. March 2009. That produced a rebound in the Year-to-Date (YtD) GPH figure to -6% through March erasing the previous YtD deficit of -23% reported in February.
Looking at the YtD weather impact breadth ratio results (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down), March still finds more operating regions in the negative vs. positive column at a ratio of 1:3. This is comprised of 4 regions up vs. 12 down and 3 in the neutral zone of the 19 regions which have 10+ month seasons. The Pacific NW Coast and the CA Valley regions continue to be “weather favorable” through March. Florida, Texas and the SE Coast are all “weather unfavorable” for the YtD period but the SE Coast had a very favorable March which reduced their weather unfavorability.
Looking back at the previously-reported February weather results vs. the Golf Datatech/NGF rounds played report, the Utilization Rate (UR) actually increased for the month which is encouraging news. The month UR was 58% or up 4 points (comprised of a 22% decline in rounds demand against a 27% GPH decline for the month) vs. the 2009 year end benchmark. Pellucid’s Market-Level Weather Impact tracking identifies the biggest gainers and losers in UR for 61 markets/states/state groups. Among the 10+ month season geographies, the market-level breadth for the February YtD period continues in negative territory at 1:5 (4 markets/states up compared to 21 down and 9 in the neutral zone). Leading the “utilization winners” were Jacksonville and Daytona FL (+2 pts or >) while multiple Texas markets earned their way onto the “utilization losers” list (-10 pts or >) behind poor weather but even higher rounds demand decreases.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “This was a welcome relief after the weather beating we took in January and February. While March didn’t erase all of the YtD deficits, a 3rd consecutive down month would have been a really tough setup for the start of the full national season. This also restores my faith (at least for a month) in the fact that our annual forecast saying we wouldn’t be double-digits down in GPH for the year is still holding water. That said, in looking at the regions and markets performance, much of the March weather favorability happened in the northern geographies which is giving markets like Chicago a nice little early-season bonus. More preferable for the industry overall would be more weather favorability in counter-seasonal markets like AZ, FL and So. Texas where they need good “off-season” weather because you know the summer will be wilting hot and depress rounds. It still amazes me, even more this year, how many media, industry association, equipment manufacturer and retailer press releases cite “poor weather” as the root cause of all evil but how few of them even have an order-of-magnitude guess as to what the absolute performance of their business is net of weather. Even more amazing is the fact that even fewer of their stakeholders hold them accountable to even try. As the old saying goes, “You get only the accountability you demand.”
The PGA of America PerformanceTrak numbers for February are showing the continued softness in Total Revenue but the good news is, complementing their figures with Pellucid’s GPH to get Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR), we’re actually slightly outperforming last year on a weather neutral basis (down 18% on Tot. Revenue compared to a GPH deficit of 23%). There are no rate figures available this month as the PGA of America and the NGCOA realized that there’s something amiss in that calculation as evidenced by the January report that F&B revenue per round was $155 and Tot. Revenue per Round was $365 (good catch).
With the addition of monthly market-level weather and utilization tracking, Pellucid now offers three levels of geography-based reports (US, 45 Regions, 61 Market/States) and three levels of facility-based reports (the 10-yr Trend Summary, the Annual Review report and the Monthly Tracking service). Pellucid also continues to integrate weather impact into their Facility Performance Scorecard (FPS) application for clients using the FORE! Reservations Point-of-Sale system as well as incorporating it into custom research projects and Golf Local Market Analyzer reports as an additional dimension. Combined with the client revenue data, the facility-level reports quantify the key measure of RevpAR (Revenue per Available (capacity) Round) which is the single best measure of the financial efficiency of the golf “factory.”
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver
President
Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
