Following very encouraging March weather, golf facilities were rewarded with yet another positive month as the April Golf Playable Hours (GPH) were up 20% for the Total US vs. April 2009. That completely erased the weather deficit caused by unfavorable January and February months with the Year-to-Date (YtD) GPH figure now reading + 6% through April.
Looking at the YtD weather impact breadth ratio results (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down), April also caused a shift in breadth from negative to positive now standing at 1.4:1. This is comprised of 23 regions up vs. 16 down and 6 in the neutral zone with all 45 regions now officially “in season” based on weather. The Great Lakes region is off to a strong start as is the Northeast while other key full-year season locations struggle on the weather front including the SE Coast, Florida, Gulf Coast, Texas and Southern CA.
Looking back at the previously-reported March weather results vs. the PerformanceTrak rounds played report (no Datatech/NGF numbers yet available so we’re using PT this month), the % Utilization Rate (UR) took a significant hit for the month as rounds dropped despite very favorable weather. The month UR was 46% or down 7 points (comprised of a 4% decline in rounds demand against an 11% GPH increase for the month) vs. the 2009 year end benchmark. There is no market-level summary available in the absence of the Golf Datatech/NGF monthly reports.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “The great news is that many of the northern climes are off to a fantastic start with solid April weather that appears, at least among our client courses, to have driven rounds which were well over their April plans (again proving Stuart Lindsay’s “Golfers are more like bears than squirrels” theory). This early season windfall has provided a little cushion in revenue unlike previous seasons where they were playing catch up on both rounds and revenue right out of the gate. While most aren’t rushing to spend that money just yet, several are taking a portion of the windfall and implementing customer-based communications to build on this momentum. On the flip side of the coin however, the March rounds results were very disappointing in that we had very favorable weather and yet couldn’t translate that into any rounds increase. While it’s hard to say what might have driven the significant decline in Utilization, it’s a red flag and the April results will be closely watched to see if that performance was a one month anomaly or whether we’ll continue to see tepid rounds growth behind solid good weather. If the rounds demand in April comes in less than +10%, it will be cause for concern in my opinion. In the meantime, we’ll bask in the glow of a great weather April and a welcome break for the industry early in the season for a change.”
The PGA of America PerformanceTrak numbers for March are somewhat mixed and hard to interpret. They’re showing YtD Rounds down 14% and Greens Fee Revenue down 12% which yields an increase in Rate per Round of 2%. That’s good news if it’s true. Interestingly, the rounds decline is driven by Municipal/Military and Private facility types. Within Greens Fee Revenue, the decline is being driven by Municipal/Military and Daily Fee facility types. The confusion comes when looking at Total Revenue which is showing basically flat to year ago and yet every contributing segment, Greens Fees, Merchandising and F&B is down by 4% or more. We’re not sure what’s making up the difference to produce flat Total Revenue but that’s how they’re scoring it currently.
With the addition of monthly market-level weather and utilization tracking, Pellucid now offers three levels of geography-based reports (US, 45 Regions, 61 Market/States) and three levels of facility-based reports (the 10-yr Trend Summary, the Annual Review report and the Monthly Tracking service). Pellucid also continues to integrate weather impact into their Facility Performance Scorecard (FPS) application for clients using the FORE! Reservations Point-of-Sale system as well as incorporating it into custom research projects and Golf Local Market Analyzer reports as an additional dimension. Combined with the client revenue data, the facility-level reports quantify the key measure of RevpAR (Revenue per Available (capacity) Round) which is the single best measure of the financial efficiency of the golf “factory.”
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver
President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
