After two great weather months at the national level in March and April, Mother Nature took a breather in May providing neutral weather with Golf Playable Hours (GPH) basically flat at -1% vs. May 2009. That kept the Year-to-Date (YtD) GPH figure up slightly at +3% through May.
Looking at the May YtD weather impact breadth ratio results (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down), we have nearly perfect neutral regional breadth at 1:1. This is comprised of 18 regions up vs. 18 down and 9 in the neutral zone. The Northeast, Great Lakes and Pacific Northwest regions are off to strong starts while Florida, the Southeast and parts of the West Coast and HI have been given less-than-previous-year weather with which to contend.
Looking back at the previously-reported April weather results vs. the Golf Datatech/NGF rounds played figures, the monthly Utilization Rate (UR) again took a hit registering 49% (comprised of an 11% increase in rounds demand against an 21% increase in GPH for the month) which put it 4 points shy of the 2009 year end benchmark. A number of markets registered UR declines in excess of 5 points including San Francisco, Denver, Houston, Tampa and New York City to name a few. On the UR winners front, no major markets registered gains of more than 5 points.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “I suggested last month that a sign of trouble would be a rounds demand increase less than 10%. The market must have been listening as the actual number squeaked in just above that benchmark. Some of our northern climes have been given a very favorable early season which has provided a little bit of a cushion in both rounds and revenue compared to previous seasons where the budget cutting started as early as May behind soft rounds and marginal weather. The $64K question at this point for our client facilities in these weather-favorable geographies is whether and how much of that favorability can they either take to the bank or spend to continue the positive early season trend. Most are choosing to go “half in” and invest some but keep the balance in reserve in case of summer softness in either rounds or rate.”
The PGA of America PerformanceTrak numbers for April are again a mixed bag. They’re showing YtD Rounds down 3% driven by declines in the Private and Muni/Military/Univ segments. Greens Fee revenue is down 5% but driven by the Daily Fee/Semi Private and Resort segments. While PerformanceTrak no longer provides a YtD GF Rate or comparison to the previous year, our calculations based on the revenue and rounds figures suggest that rate at the total facilities level is basically flat (-1%) meaning the revenue decline is being driven by volume (rounds) vs. rate. Among the key facility revenue centers (Greens Fee, Merchandising, F&B), again we have a mathematically odd situation where Median Total Revenue is basically flat but all components are either flat or down; go figure, this must be the “new math” we missed back in the 1980s.
With the addition of monthly market-level weather and utilization tracking, Pellucid now offers three levels of geography-based reports (US, 45 Regions, 61 Market/States) and three levels of facility-based reports (the 10-yr Trend Summary, the Annual Review report and the Monthly Tracking service). Pellucid also continues to integrate weather impact into their Facility Performance Scorecard (FPS) application for clients using the FORE! Reservations Point-of-Sale system as well as incorporating it into custom research projects and Golf Local Market Analyzer reports as an additional dimension. Combined with the client revenue data, the facility-level reports quantify the key measure of RevpAR (Revenue per Available (capacity) Round) which is the single best measure of the financial efficiency of the golf “factory.”
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver
President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
