June landed safely, as it often does, in the neutral zone with Golf Playable Hours (GPH) basically flat at -2% vs. June 2009. That however slightly eroded the Year-to-Date (YtD) GPH figure which also dipped into the neutral zone at +2% through June after being in positive territory since April. Of note beneath the neutral GPH results however is the weekend unfavorability YtD of -2% which weighs heavily on both the rounds and revenue results.
Looking at the June YtD weather impact breadth ratio results (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down), we have perfectly balanced regional breadth at 1:1. This is comprised of 17 regions up vs. 17 down and 11 in the neutral zone. The Northeast, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Pacific Northwest regions are off to strong starts while the Southeast, Texas, the Rockies, Southwest and Hawaii continue to struggle with less favorable weather than last year.
Looking back at the previously-reported May weather results vs. the Golf Datatech/NGF rounds played figures, the monthly Utilization Rate (UR) registered a slightly subpar reading of 52% (comprised of an 3% decrease in rounds demand against an 1% decrease in GPH for the month) which put it 1 point lower than the 2009 yearend benchmark. That brings the YtD UR down slightly to 50% or 3 points below the 2009 mark. The market-level breadth is strongly negative at 1:4.6 (comprised of 7 markets up vs. 32 markets down). UR winners are led by Greensboro/Raleigh up nearly 5 points YtD while the lengthy list of declining UR markets is led by Seattle, Minneapolis and Wisconsin all with double digit drops in utilization.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “As we move into the key summer months, the GPH results tend to stabilize because the temperature component of our GPH calculations now only has to contend with the high end (too hot) and the primary driver of favorability or unfavorability becomes precipitation. That said, our attention during the summer shifts to the weekday/weekend distribution of weather which, as outlined in the opening paragraph, unfortunately is not in our favor through June. While we’re seeing slightly positive GPH overall, it’s composed of favorable weekdays and unfavorable weekends which usually will show up in sagging revenue and rounds since we are able to charge higher rates on weekends and generally have higher rounds throughput as well. The Utilization Rate drop for the month is also concerning but not yet at a level to panic. The continuing storyline to weather here is the volatility across key markets as outlined above, both to the positive (good on ya’ mate) and the negative (can’t catch a break).”
The PGA of America PerformanceTrak numbers for May are once again showing some consistency; unfortunately the consistent theme is down. The May YtD Rounds are down 3% driven by declines in the Private and Muni/Military/Univ segments. Greens Fee revenue continues to show down 5% driven by the Daily Fee/Semi Private, Muni/Military/University and Resort segments. While PerformanceTrak no longer provides a YtD GF Rate or comparison to the previous year, our calculations suggest that rate at the all facilities level is roughly $33 and basically flat (-1%). This means the revenue decline is being driven primarily by the 3% volume (rounds) decline vs. the 1% drop in rate. Among the key facility revenue centers (Greens Fee, Merchandising, F&B), it appears that all ancillary revenue centers are holding their own which means the entire revenue decline can be squarely pinned on the Greens Fee component.
With the addition of monthly market-level weather and utilization tracking, Pellucid now offers three levels of geography-based reports (US, 45 Regions, 61 Market/States) and three levels of facility-based reports (the 10-yr Trend Summary, the Annual Review report and the Monthly Tracking service). Pellucid also continues to integrate weather impact into their Facility Performance Scorecard (FPS) application for clients using the FORE! Reservations Point-of-Sale system as well as incorporating it into custom research projects and Golf Local Market Analyzer reports as an additional dimension. Combined with the client revenue data, the facility-level reports quantify the key measure of RevpAR (Revenue per Available (capacity) Round) which is the single best measure of the financial efficiency of the golf “factory.”
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
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