August continued July’s unfavorable trend of unseasonably warm weather in several key regions producing a drop in national Golf Playable Hours (GPH) of -5% vs. August 2009. That caused the Year-to-Date (YtD) GPH reading to fall into slightly although still in the neutral zone (-0.6%) vs. year ago. The weekend vs. weekday GPH distribution at the national level for the YtD period also swung unfavorable with weekends at -3% and weekdays basically flat. While this doesn’t impact utilization, it does impact both rounds and revenue results as favorable weekend weather produces more rounds and higher revenue per GPH.
Looking at the August YtD weather impact breadth ratio results (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down), the regional breadth measure continues in negative territory at 1:1.3. This is comprised of 15 regions up vs. 20 down and 10 in the neutral zone. The Northeast, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Pacific Northwest regions continue to favorable weather trends for the year while the Southeast, Mid-Continental, Texas, Rockies, Southwest and Hawaii continue to fight weather unfavorability this year.
Looking back at the previously-reported July weather results vs. the Golf Datatech/NGF rounds played figures, the monthly % Utilization measure held its own at 53% (comprised of an 5% decrease in rounds demand against a 5% decrease in GPH for the month) which put it statistically flat with the 2009 year end benchmark. That kept the YtD Utilization measure at 51% or 2 points below the 2009 mark. Market-level breadth deteriorated for July YtD to 1:3.3 (comprised of 9 markets up vs. 30 markets down and 22 in the neutral zone). Market utilization winners among key markets are led by Phoenix alone up more than 2 points YtD while Chicago, Minneapolis, Orlando, Detroit, Cleveland, Tampa and Boston are notable among the utilization decliners all losing more than 3 points through July.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, “Similar to the July results, we’re seeing the upper limits of our temperature and heat index boundaries tested during the month which is reducing the number of Golf Playable Hours for many markets. What’s interesting is we saw that happen in August both in the places where you expect to see it (the deep south) but also in the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic regions which contributed to the unfavorable weather results for the month. What you’ll also see in the PerformanceTrak measures is how our approach of using hourly unit building blocks and a rules-based approach incorporating multiple weather factors avoids some of the pitfalls of the Playable Days approach or simply adding up precipitation amounts or degrees above average temperature. We’ve learned most of this stuff by trial-and-error and the fact that we’ve been at it now for over 5 years with an experienced partner makes a difference.”
The PGA of America PerformanceTrak numbers for July are showing YtD Rounds are down 4% continuing to be driven by declines at the two ends of the price spectrum: Private (-4%) and Muni/Military/Univ (-6%). Golf Fee revenue YtD showed remained at – 4% driven by all segments except Private which was reported flat. Looking at the Golf Fee rate performance YtD, they report that it’s $27 which is statistically flat vs. year ago. As mentioned above, the monthly Performance Index is showing 95 which is the result of a similar number of Days Open against a 5% decline in rounds. This points out one of the weaknesses in using Days Open, while it accounts for precipitation and (possibly) cold temperature, it doesn’t account for warmer temperature variances which do impact play. Pellucid will be including an extensive scorecard of weather, rounds, revenue, rates and equipment sales in their new publication, The Pellucid Perspective, starting in October. To register to receive the e-magazine free of charge go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/utilities/guest.html or contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
With the addition of monthly market-level weather and utilization tracking, Pellucid now offers three levels of geography-based reports (US, 45 Regions, 61 Market/States) and three levels of facility-based reports (the 10-yr Trend Summary, the Annual Review report and the Monthly Tracking service). Pellucid also continues to integrate weather impact into their Facility Performance Scorecard (FPS) application for clients using the FORE! Reservations Point-of-Sale system as well as incorporating it into custom research projects and Golf Local Market Analyzer reports as an additional dimension. Combined with the client revenue data, the facility-level reports quantify the key measure of RevpAR (Revenue per Available (capacity) Round) which is the single best measure of the financial efficiency of the golf “factory.”
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver
President
Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
