December weather impact was unfavorable with Golf Playable Hours (GPH) down 18% compared to year ago. This lowered the Year-to-Date (Ytd) weather impact to -1% vs. year ago which keeps it in the neutral zone (+/-2%). YtD regional breadth continues to be negative at 1:1.3 with only 15 regions having favorable weather compared to 20 regions with unfavorable weather (remaining 10 in the neutral zone). The weekday vs. weekend weather impact was also unfavorable with weekends registering -3% while weekdays were -1% vs. year ago.
Looking back on November rounds demand as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate % Utilization, the Utilization Rate increased 4 points to 58% (unfortunately comprised of an 11% decrease in Rounds Played against an 18% decrease in Capacity Rounds). For the YtD period, the Utilization Rate climbed slightly to 53% and it remains down 1 point compared to the 2009 year end benchmark rate of 53% (rounding).
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “December weather was a combination of unfavorability in some of the key 12-season regions (SE coast, SW desert, SoCal) as well as continued cold and snow in the frostbelt regions compared to a relatively mild December in 2009. As a result, I anticipate we’ll again see a rounds decline figure in the 4-8% range when the December rounds results are released but, with over 97% of the annual rounds in the bank, it won’t have significant impact on the year end results. The positive news coming out of the November rounds was that we increased Utilization meaning that our “factories” made the most of the poor month when it came to rounds generation. On the facility revenue side via the November PGA PerformanceTrak numbers, the YtD numbers declined slightly to -3% for the All Facility Greens Fee Revenue Median comprised of a 2% decline in rounds (volume) and a 1% decline in rate. This sets up an interesting question which we’ll explore in our upcoming State of the Industry presentation of “Why, if discounting is so rampant and a major performance factor, aren’t we seeing a higher rounds and lower rate situation in the national performance metrics?”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s new digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/utilities/guest.html and select any of the existing services for information.
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
