February weather impact was favorable with Golf Playable Hours (GPH) up 35% compared to year ago. This brought the Year-to-Date (Ytd) weather impact to +20% vs. year ago which accelerated January’s positive start. Regional breadth for the YtD period broke into positive territory at 1:6:1 with 11 regions having favorable weather compared to 7 regions with unfavorable weather (1 in the neutral zone and the remaining 26 regions out of play). Completing the trifecta, the weekday vs. weekend weather impact was also favorable with weekend GPH up 26% and weekday GPH up 18% vs. year ago.
Looking back on January rounds demand as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate % Utilization, the Utilization Rate increased 2 points to 55% (comprised of a 7% increase in Rounds Played against a 4% increase in Capacity Rounds). The YtD period measure is the same, note that we’re now comparing to the 2010 year end benchmark utilization rate of 53% (which was down fractionally form 2009’s benchmark rate). Among market utilization “winners” in January were San Diego, Las Vegas, Seattle and Atlanta while the “biggest losers” were Dallas, Palm Beach and Los Angeles.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “The favorable February weather appears that it will provide a boost to the Southeast coast, Florida and Texas while much of the West Coast and the Northwest didn’t fare quite as well. The rounds results in January were a pleasant upside surprise that beat my conservative call that we should see a rounds increase in the 2-5% range behind last month’s favorable weather results. If February follows suit, we should see a rounds increase in the 10%+ range for the month which would be a great benefit to the 12 month season golf geographies and especially those which are highly tourist-dependent locations. It’s an encouraging start on the rounds side for the year and is moving directionally with our call in the 2010 State of the Industry presentation that weather is forecast to provide a 2% tailwind to rounds by the end of 2011.”
On the facility revenue side via the January PGA PerformanceTrak numbers, the month and YtD numbers were +7% for the All Facility Greens Fee Revenue Median comprised of a 9% increase in rounds (volume) and a 2% decline in rate. All facility types participated in the rounds gain but the Muni/Mil/Univ segment stood out on the downside with basically flat revenue driven by a muted rounds increase and offset by a drop in rate.
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s new digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/utilities/guest.html and select any of the existing services for information.
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
Affordable weather impact tracking report options are available at regional level ($199/yr, 45 regions, 12 rpts), market level ($299/yr, 61 markets & 12 regions, 12 rpts) and individual facility level ($249, 3 years of history by month and day-of-week and current year forecast). For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
