March weather impact was unfavorable with Golf Playable Hours (GPH) down 14% compared to year ago. This brought the Year-to-Date (Ytd) weather impact to 0% vs. year ago (or “even” in plain English) which offset the weather gains accumulated in the first two months of the year. Regional breadth for the YtD period remained positive however at 2.2:1 with 13 regions having favorable weather compared to 6 regions with unfavorable weather (1 in the neutral zone and the remaining 25 regions yet to start their season). The YtD weekday vs. weekend weather impact was also favorable with weekend GPH up 7% offset completely by less favorable weekday GPH which was down 2% vs. year ago.
Looking back on February rounds demand as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate % Utilization, the Utilization Rate decreased 6 points to 46% (comprised of a 19% increase in Rounds Played against a 35% increase in Capacity Rounds). For the YtD period, Utilization registered 50% (comprised of a 14% increase in Rounds Played against a 20% increase in Capacity Rounds) which is a 3 point decline vs. the 2010 benchmark utilization rate of 53%. Among the YtD market utilization “winners” were Seattle, Portland and Sacramento while the “biggest losers” were Raleigh, Atlanta and Orlando.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “March snapped our favorable weather winning streak and was a big enough “downer” to offset the favorable weather cushion we had built up through the first two months of the year. The YtD pattern is setting up as favorable for the eastern half of the US while the west has seen widespread unfavorability. Interestingly, although the east is seeing favorable weather, they’re lagging on utilization in that the rounds increases are not keeping pace with the favorable GPH while the west’s rounds declines are generally in line with the weather unfavorability meaning they’re winning the utilization battle thus far. The rounds results in February were in line with my call of “up double digits” however, given the March GPH results, we’re likely to see a meaningful drop in the March rounds vs. year-ago. So, we enter the beginning of the golf season for the balance of the country with weather neutral results in the “pre-season” for the 10 month+ geography as a whole. ”
On the facility golf fees revenue side via the February PGA PerformanceTrak numbers, the YtD period showed a 13% gain comprised of a 17% increase in rounds offset by a 4% decline in rate at the All Facility level. Leading the revenue increase was Private facilities with a 16% gain while the rounds increase was driven by Private facilities (+20%) and only Resort showed an increase in rate (+2%).
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s new digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/utilities/guest.html and select any of the existing services for information.
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
Affordable weather impact tracking report options are available at regional level ($199/yr, 45 regions, 12 rpts), market level ($299/yr, 61 markets & 12 regions, 12 rpts) and individual facility level ($249, 3 years of history by month and day-of-week and current year forecast). For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
