May weather impact leveled off at the national level with Golf Playable Hours (GPH) down 1% compared to year ago. This brought the Year-to-Date (YtD) weather impact to -7% vs. year ago slightly better than the April YtD level of -11%. Regional breadth for the YtD period deteriorated to 1.1.9 with 14 regions having favorable weather offset by 26 regions with unfavorable weather (5 in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). The weekend vs. weekday distribution of weather unfavorability is a slight benefit with weekdays showing -8% in GPH compared to the -4% weekend GPH.
Looking back on April rounds demand as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate % Utilization, for the 2nd straight month we’re showing an increase in utilization to 56% (comprised of a 17% decline in rounds played compared to the 21% decline in capacity rounds). For the YtD period, Utilization registered 55% (comprised of a 6% decrease in rounds against an 11% decline in capacity rounds) which is a 3 point increase vs. the 2010 benchmark utilization rate of 53%. Among the YtD market utilization “winners” are Seattle, Cleveland, Dallas and Boston while the “biggest losers” consist of Denver, Cincinnati and Atlanta.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “This season is shaping up (unfortunately) to be the poster child for Stuart Lindsay’s and my assertion that you cannot evaluate golf industry performance at any level without incorporating weather. Weather across the US has been as varied and polar (as in opposites, not the North and South or cold) as we’ve seen in our 5 years of industry tracking. For example, it’s been an abysmal spring in most of the Midwest including Pellucid’s hometown of Chicago. Rounds are down 40% YtD and people are climbing out windows onto ledges. Capacity Rounds however are down 56% which means that we’ve actually increased utilization to 69% after factoring out the incredibly adverse weather vs. a very good 2010 Spring season. It guides our clients to the conclusion that you can’t discount to overcome bad weather and there’s nothing wrong with their current marketing programs, pricing and product. On the flip side, although very violent weather, floods and other natural disasters pummeled the heartland of the US in May, strength in the Northeast, Southeast, Southwest and stability in California produced a relatively flat month at the US level. While everyone wants to point to the headline weather in the central US, it does not a country make nor does it a month make. Net, I’m somewhat encouraged by the resiliency being shown in rounds played through May and, while things aren’t necessarily rosy, we just need a break here from Mother Nature for the June-August period.”
On the facility golf fees revenue side via the April PGA PerformanceTrak numbers, the YtD period showed a 2% decline comprised of a 4% decrease in rounds and an 11% decline in rate (wow!) at the All Facility level (how you get a 2% decline in revenue by combining a 4% drop in volume and an 11% decline in rate is beyond us but we just report the news on this front, we don’t create it). Leading the revenue decline were Muni/Mil/Univ facilities with a 7% decline followed by Daily Fee/Semi Private facilities which were down 3%. On the rate side, Muni/Mil/Univ facilities again led the way with a 15% decline with all segments except Resort showing double-digit declines in rate.
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s new digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/utilities/guest.html, select any of the existing services for information and it will register you to receive it.
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
Affordable weather impact tracking report options are available at regional level ($199/yr, 45 regions, 12 rpts), market level ($299/yr, 61 markets & 12 regions, 12 rpts) and individual facility level ($249, 3 years of history by month and day-of-week and current year forecast). For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
