July weather impact followed the unusual June pattern of moderate national change but significant local swings with Golf Playable Hours (GPH) down slightly (-2%) compared to year ago (YA). This brought the Year-to-Date (YtD) weather impact up slightly to -4% vs. YA, another slight gain from June’s YtD level of -5%. Regional breadth for the YtD period continued to be negative at 1:1.9 with 14 regions having favorable weather offset by 26 regions with unfavorable weather (5 in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). The weekend vs. weekday distribution of weather variance is slightly benevolent with weekdays showing a change of -7% in GPH compared to +1% for weekends.
Looking back on Jun rounds demand as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate Utilization Rate (UR), June registered basically flat at 53% (comprised of a 1% increase in Played Rounds against no change in Capacity Rounds). For the YtD period, Utilization also held steady at 53% (comprised of a 4% decrease in Played Rounds against a 5% decline in Capacity Rounds) which is even with the 2010 year-end value of 53%. Among the YtD market utilization “winners” are Seattle and Dallas with gains of 5+ points while there are no “biggest losers” in utilization with an even spread across a number of markets of <5 points each.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "Living in Chicago this year it seems we're near (if not at) the epicenter of a number of extreme weather events, back-to-back-to-back (as they say on Sports Center). The Great Lakes and Ohio Valley have been subjected to the full spectrum of unfavorable golf conditions this summer with heat, drought, flooding, severe electrical storms and high wind events. Our weather impact is showing only a part of this series of events capturing the immediate and direct effects (i.e. temps, humidity, wind during day, rainfall etc.) and are showing 10%+ declines in GPH for the YtD period. It is most probably worse as the residual effects of flooding are not captured nor are the loss in play due to electrical failures of which we've had several this summer. The national picture however is being propped up by favorability along the Southeastern seaboard, Florida and the Gulf as well as the Rockies and the Southwest coupled with stability in the key California Coastal region. While I love Chicago and its generally very hospitable summer golf weather, it's a banner bad weather year here for residents let alone those trying to make their living running golf facilities."
On the facility golf fees (GF) revenue side via the June PGA PerformanceTrak numbers, the YtD period showed a 2% decline comprised of a 2% increase in rounds and a 2% increase in rate at the All Facility level (go figure, two positives make a negative, only in PerformanceTrak land does this occur). Coupled with the YtD change in GPH of -4%, this produces a positive differential of 2 points suggesting that all of the national-level GF revenue unfavorability through Jun can be explained by poorer weather.
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid's new digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/utilities/guest.html, select any of the existing services for information and it will register you to receive it.
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ''controllable'' vs. ''uncontrollable'' factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid's weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
Affordable weather impact tracking report options are available at regional level ($199/yr, 45 regions, 12 rpts), market level ($299/yr, 61 markets & 12 regions, 12 rpts) and individual facility level ($249, 3 years of history by month and day-of-week and current year forecast). For more specific information on how Pellucid's Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
