Given that weather was in the headlines for some part of the country nearly constantly during August, the net impact for the entire month at the national level was Golf Playable Hours (GPH) basically flat (-0.1%) compared to year ago (YA). This brought the Year-to-Date (YtD) weather impact remained at -4% vs. YA, the same level as reported last month. Regional breadth for the YtD period deteriorated slightly and remains negative at 1:2.2 with 11 regions having favorable weather offset by 24 regions with unfavorable weather (5 in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). The weekend vs. weekday distribution of weather variance changed to the negative for both weekdays and weekends at -4% and -2% respectively.
Looking back on July rounds demand as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate Utilization Rate (UR), July registered basically flat at 53% (comprised of a 2% decrease in Played Rounds against a 2% decline in Capacity Rounds). Therefore, the YtD period Utilization also held steady at 53% (comprised of a 4% decrease in Played Rounds against a 4% decline in Capacity Rounds) which is even with the 2010 year-end value of 53%. Among the YtD market utilization “winners” are Seattle and Dallas which are holding on to previous gains of 5+ points while the “biggest losers” in utilization among the markets that matter in rounds contribution is isolated to Atlanta which is down 3 points (interesting situation, they’ve had +2% rounds growth but GPH has been extremely favorable at +11% this year)
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “August was another poster child month for why you have to track weather mathematically vs. anecdotally. While we’re having extreme weather events on a recurring basis in various US geographies that make the headlines and dominate people’s thoughts and perceptions, in the background there is perfectly acceptable (and in many cases very good) weather happening unnoticed. While one of the limitations of our weather tracking is that it doesn’t accurately account for the aftermath of significant weather events (i.e. the day after Irene rolled through the northeastern seaboard our rules would say that they returned to golf playable hours), it’s a better tool than saying that golf stopped completely for every state within a 200 mile radius of Irene’s wrath. Atlanta’s and Chicago are also good market-level cases where weather adds an important dimension to understanding performance. As mentioned above, Atlanta operators are probably feeling pretty good about their 2% rounds gain but the weather in fact shows they’re somewhat squandering Mother Nature’s benevolence thusfar this year. In Chicago, we’re down 11% on rounds which has everyone rightfully concerned but, in light of an 18% drop in GPH YtD, we’re working pretty efficiently within the confines of what we’ve been given to work with.”
On the facility golf fees (GF) revenue side via the July PGA PerformanceTrak numbers, the YtD period shows a 1% decline comprised of a 1% decrease in rounds and a 4% increase in rate at the All Facility level (we’re getting closer, we’ve now got agreement in the positive/negative balance but a 4% increase in rate coupled with a 1% decrease in volume (rounds) should yield a 3% decline in revenue in most math books). Coupled with the YtD change in GPH of -4%, this produces a positive differential of 2 points suggesting that, according to PGA PerformanceTrak, all of the national-level GF revenue unfavorability through July can be explained by poorer weather.
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s new digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/utilities/guest.html, select any of the existing services for information and it will register you to receive it.
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to ”controllable” vs. ”uncontrollable” factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid’s weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
Affordable weather impact tracking report options are available at regional level ($199/yr, 45 regions, 12 rpts), market level ($299/yr, 61 markets & 12 regions, 12 rpts) and individual facility level ($249, 3 years of history by month and day-of-week and current year forecast). For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
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