August, with the notable exception of Hurricane Isaac which swept across Florida and slammed into New Orleans, was another month of widespread favorability as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) registered +4% vs. the same period last year at the national level. That continued a slight erosion in the national Year-to-Date (YtD) GPH favorability to +12% vs. the comparable year ago period. The regional breadth for the YtD period continues to be widely favorable at 5:1 with 36 regions having favorable weather against 7 regions with unfavorable weather (the remaining 2 in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, weekdays continue to be the driving favorability factor although weekends also have enjoyed GPH gains. For the full-year, we continue to see the GPH forecast well above 2011 suggesting that owner/operators will not see a significant “giveback” in weather favorability over the balance of the year (meaning they’ll get to take most of the current year’s surplus “to the bank”). The values for the above two metrics as well as market-level Utilization for the preceding month are available to Pellucid Publications Members via the Client section at the Pellucid website (go to www.pellucidcorp.com for information or to subscribe).
Looking back on July rounds played (as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF) to calculate the facility % Utilization Rate (UR), rounds demand (-1%) fell slightly short of the slightly more favorable weather (+2%) resulting in a UR decline for the month to 51% which is 1 point lower than the 2011 year-end value. For the YtD period, the UR still lags year ago at 50% comprised of a healthy increase in rounds demand (+9%) slightly trailing even better weather (+13%). At the market level for the YtD period, the positive UR breadth improved to a 2:1 ratio of favorable/unfavorable markets (comprised of 24 markets up vs. 12 down and 25 in the neutral zone). This improved market-level breadth suggests that weather favorability is shifting slightly toward the major metro markets and states vs. previous months.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “Hurricane Isaac’s landfall the final days of August is likely etched in everyone’s mind as the defining event for golf last month. It was obviously a severe weather event and a tragic turn of events for a number of residents and locations on the Gulf Coast and we see that in the GPH decline for the month of 10% for that region. On the other hand, part of the reason we invented the Weather Impact measures and tracking at individual facility level was to be able to point out that in other locations like Florida, where they got a glancing blow from Isaac, weather favorability for the balance of the month more than offset the several days of rain resulting in positive GPH results for both all 3 regions in Florida that Pellucid tracks. So, while parts of the country got smacked by Isaac, overall the industry enjoyed an “up” month for weather, widely distributed across the country. We continue to seek and provide facts about the net effect of weather to counteract the traditional media coverage which tends to take isolated, regional and state events and extrapolates them into either doom or euphoria without a commensurate level of factual detail.”
On the Golf Fee Revenue (GFR) side via the July PGA PerformanceTrak numbers, they’re reporting a -1% decline for the month (matching the 1% rounds decline which means rate-per-round was flat vs. YA). For the YtD period, GFR dropped to a +5% increase (down from +13% as of last month and now trailing the 11% rounds increase meaning rate-per-round is down vs. YA). Inferring Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR, or the revenue efficiency of our “factories”) by comparing the YtD GFR gain (+5%) against the GPH gain (+13%), it suggests that while we’re having a welcome year in the revenue “black,” we’re actually behind last year on RevpAR so there’s still work to be done.
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you will be registered for the next edition on 9/17/12.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers can subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2011 State of the Industry, Monthly Weather Impact and Top 25 Golf Markets reports) for $495 annually. For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and 12 month tracking or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com). You can now order either of the above information services via Pellucid’s online store at http://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/online-store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
