November blew in and out like a cold dose of reality as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) came in at -11% vs. Year Ago (YA) at the national level. For the Year-to-Period (YtD), the GPH comparative measure gave back some of the Q3 gains registering at -6% through November. The YtD regional breadth ratio continues to be negative registering at 1:5 with 6 regions having favorable weather against 29 regions with unfavorable weather (10 regions are in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, we see a slight bias in the unfavorable GPH results toward weekdays vs. weekends (one small saving grace). For the full-year forecast, our November update shows that we slid backwards slightly in our projection of where we’ll finish compared to last year (driven in part by the negative November comps and the December forecast not looking appreciably better). The values for the above two metrics, the GPH results by day-of-the-week, the monthly timeseries for the entire year as well as market-level Utilization Rates are available to Pellucid Publications Members via the Client Login section at the Pellucid website (go to www.pellucidcorp.com for information or to subscribe).
Looking back on October rounds played as reported by Golf Datatech to calculate the facility % Utilization Rate (UR), rounds demand (+4%) significantly lagged the positive weather performance (+7%) resulting in a UR level for the month of 50% which is 2 points behind than the benchmark 2012 year-end value. For the YtD period the measure remained slightly up with a rounds decline rate (-4%) slightly beating the weather decline rate (-5%) producing a UR of 52% or +1 pt vs. the 2012 year-end value.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “After a solid 3rd quarter in GPH “comps” which continued into October, reality set back in with the arrival of winter in the northern climes (on time, but we’ve had delays in previous years which have unrealistically raised our expectations) with lackluster weather in the non-northern climates piling on. Looking at the map treatment which we publish to our subscribers monthly (and is in the Pellucid Perspective as well mid-month), it’s pretty much a sea of red numbers for the November month GPH across our 45 regions compared to 2012. I expect that we’ll see a rounds decline in the November figures of between 5-10% which won’t be cheered by industry participants but the reality is we’re so deep in the season that it won’t change the overall performance that much in either rounds or revenue at the national level. The good news is that we’re holding utilization, which means we’re tracking with the weather but not able to offset any of the downward pressure on rounds. PerformanceTrak continues to suggest that the average operator has been able to make pricing power stick so revenue is not following the rounds decline.”
On the revenue side via the October YtD PGA PerformanceTrak numbers, they’re reporting Median Total Revenue basically flat and Median Golf Fee (GF) Revenue down 3%. Comparing their YtD GF Revenue (-3%) and Rounds Played (-4%) metrics produces a +1% change on GF rate-per-played-round. Pellucid calculations combining our GPH measure and their GF Revenue measure show a continued positive comparison vs. 2012 in Revenue-per-Available Round (RevpAR, or the revenue efficiency of our “factories”). The actual RevpAR value and the percent change are also available to Pellucid Publications members on a monthly basis at the national level.
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you will be registered for the next edition on 12/15/13.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers can subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2012 State of the Industry, 2012 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Monthly Market-Level Weather Impact, 2012 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports) for $495 annually. For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and 12 month tracking or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com). You can now order either of the above information services via Pellucid’s online store at http://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/online-store.
For the very organized, advance planners out there, Pellucid is also announcing the dates and times for our 11th annual State of the Industry presentation during the PGA Merchandising Show in the ING Hospitality Suite. Due to the forward shift in the days of the week for the 2014 show, we will be doing our presentation on Thursday, 1/23/13 from 10:30-11:30AM and then again from 3:30-4:30PM. If you’d like to attend, you can RSVP to Jim Koppenhaver (jimk@pellucidcorp.com) and indicate which session you’d like to attend and how many people (we’re continuing our request to limit attendees to 4 per organization per session as a courtesy to all interested attendees). For those of you who may not be traveling to Orlando for the PGA Show (we’re not planning to present at GIS if you’re wondering, the NGCOA has an issue with “non-sanctioned” educational events during their show), we’ll also be unveiling live streaming of the event this year and potentially a replay during the GIS show (demonstrating you may be able to control the venue but, increasingly, you can’t control the flow of information and people’s ability to access it). Stuart Lindsay and Jim Koppenhaver are in the beginning stages of compiling the annual recap of the numbers and shaping the storylines for what we experienced in 2013 and what to expect in 2014, you won’t want to miss it!
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
