February unfortunately picked up where January left off as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) came in at -11% vs. Year Ago (YA) at the national level. For the Year-to-Period (YtD), the GPH comparative measure improved slightly but remains in negative territory at -17% vs. the same period last year. The YtD regional positive/negative breadth ratio was also negative registering at -1.5:1 with 7 regions having favorable weather against 11 regions with unfavorable weather (2 in-season regions finished in the neutral zone of +/- 2%, the remaining 25 regions are out-of-season). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, the negative weather results were slightly more concentrated in weekdays vs. weekends. The one bright spot in February’s results is that the full-year weather impact forecast improved slightly vs. January’s call. Pellucid’s call for the 2014 full-year comparative GPH for Total US and the 45 regions is part of our State of the Industry presentation which is available for sale. Also, the monthly update to that forecast at the national level and the breakdown of weather impact by day-of-week are available to Pellucid Publications Members (who also receive the State of the Industry) via the Client Login section at the Pellucid website (go to www.pellucidcorp.com for information or to subscribe).
Looking back on January rounds played as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate the facility % Utilization Rate (UR), we see the rounds demand deficit (-4%) was considerably shallower than weather performance (-24%) resulting in a UR level for the month of 67% which significantly beat the benchmark 2013 year-end value. For the YtD period the measure is the same (only one month’s results) and the encouraging news here is that’s 2 months where rounds demand significantly outperformed weather. In fairness however, both December and January are relatively “thin” slices of performance so one shouldn’t read too much into that trend yet.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “There shouldn’t be any surprise in these figures given that weather has dominated national news for much of both January and February. As I pointed out last month, major storms in the Midwest and Northeast have relatively little impact on golf since we’re out of season but when the polar vortex weather pattern stretches down into the south, then that becomes an issue for normally productive cities like Dallas, Atlanta and the Southeastern Seaboard. On the plus side of the weather ledger, Phoenix has had a good start to the year and California is also relatively healthy through the first two months (other than the fact that they desperately need more rain). As outlined above, the “silver lining” from our current perspective is that our full year forecast is improving each month which means the prognosticators and models indicate that we’ll be able to make up much of this deficit to last year as the season progresses. As Stuart Lindsay’s often says however, “If there were a Hall of Fame for weathermen which required at least a .333 lifetime batting average, there wouldn’t be any inductees.”
On the Revenue side, according to the January PGA PerformanceTrak numbers, All Facility Median Total Revenue for the month was up slightly vs. ’13 (+1.5%). Golf Fee Revenue for the month came in basically flat (+0.2%) which means we saw a slight increase in rate (+7%, comparing this number to their -7% rounds decline). For the YtD period, the key metrics of Total and Golf Fee Revenue-per-Round (RevpAR) were both up vs. YA based on the flat revenue performance vs. the double-digit decline in GPH. These values and the % change vs. last year are also available in the monthly Pellucid Publications member reports.
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you will be registered for the next edition on 3/17/14.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers can subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2013 State of the Industry (just released), 2012 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Monthly Market-Level Weather Impact, 2012 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports) for $495 annually. For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and 12 month tracking or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com). You can now order either of the above information services via Pellucid’s online store at http://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/online-store.
Pellucid’s 11th annual 2013 State of the Industry review and discussion was successfully held during the PGA Merchandise Show last month to a total audience numbering just under 300. Both sessions were also broadcast via the web (we even had a few of the webcast participants typing in comments and feedback on the screen in Orlando during the presentation) to an audience of just under 100 who couldn’t be there in person. Pellucid also successfully webcast the recording of those sessions to roughly 100 registered viewers during last week’s GIS on Wednesday and Thursday at high noon in the midst of the Trade Show activities. To see what you missed, order the report and get access to the video included; roughly 500 people (many of them veteran attendees/listeners of 5+ years) can’t be wrong!
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
