August posted a modest decline to break the 5-month winning streak vs. ’13 as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) came in at -1% vs. Year Ago (YA) at the national level. For the Year-to-Period (YtD), the GPH comparative measure vs. ’13 remained statistically flat (remember however that last year was not a weather season to remember). The YtD regional positive/negative breadth ratio remains positive at 2.0:1 with 17 regions having favorable weather against 8 regions with unfavorable weather (20 regions finished in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, weekends continued to register in positive comparative territory in GPH with weekdays showing a modest decline. Looking to the balance of the, interestingly and possibly encouragingly, the August projection showed a marked improvement the year-end weather impact forecast although we’re stilling calling the year to be down vs. 2013 at the national level (so much for NGF’s published opinion that “2014 can’t be worse than 2013”). We’re now also tracking the YtD GPH vs. the 10-yr average (gives a better absolute indicator than “down vs. a poor previous year” or “up against a stellar previous year”) and, similarly, it showed improvement but is also tracking well below that benchmark. Pellucid’s call for the 2014 full-year comparative GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-yr average and the day-of-week breakdowns are available to Pellucid Publications Members via the Client Login section at the Pellucid website (go to www.pellucidcorp.com for information or to subscribe, we’ll send you a sample of the 2014 Q1 actual results to review).
Looking back on July rounds played as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate the facility % Utilization Rate (UR), we had an increase in rounds demand results (+1%) which was a nearly exact match to the month’s weather performance (+1%) resulting in a flat UR level vs. the 2013 year end benchmark. For the YtD period, rounds continued to slightly trail the flat GPH measure as they remain in negative territory (-1%) vs. neutral weather which results in a lower UR for this period. The supporting figures are also contained in the Pellucid Publications Membership monthly report.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “August weather produced a relatively flat result at the national level due to offsetting gains and losses vs. a pattern where the majority of the geographies were placid. The Southeast seaboard registered quite a few red numbers while Texas had generally favorable weather as did the Desert SW. Here in the Great Lakes region, it was a mixed bag with the more northern geographies having more favorability than the geography south of the lakes. California continues to be an example of “steady as she goes” with both Northern and Southern Cal trading in a very narrow range of GPH variance. On the other hand, natural disasters and challenges have been the larger story in California between the raging wildfires and the water shortage but neither of those will be picked up in our Weather Impact tracking. The one encouraging fact that I picked up in the August update of the data is the fact that we’re calling for increasingly favorable weather across a broad range of geographies which will provide a slight tailwind for the balance of the season if our forecast information is correct. While I realize that for many this will be too little, too late, it’s better than a sharp stick in the eye. While we’re still showing a lower deficit in GPH for the year vs. ’13, the comparative number in previous months was moving lower and in the August results I saw a noticeable improvement and pushing us back toward the projections we had made at the State of the Industry back in January.”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics, including the Revenue and Rate figures, can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you will be registered for the next edition on 8/15/14.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers can either a) Subscribe to the National Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($199, 12 reports annually) or b) Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2013 State of the Industry, 2013 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, National Weather Impact Analysis Tracking, 2013 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually. For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and 12 month tracking or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com). You can now order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s online store at http://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/online-store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
