At the national level, May came in basically flat as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) registered down 1% vs. Year Ago (YA) at the national level. That result dampened the Year-to-Date (YtD) figure slightly but it still is up 6% vs. YA. The YtD regional positive/negative breadth ratio remains positive at 6:1 with 25 regions having favorable weather against 4 regions with unfavorable weather (16 regions fell in the neutral zone of +/- 2%, with all 45 regions now “in season”). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, favorability is slightly stronger in weekdays vs. weekends but not enough of a difference to meaningfully impact volume or revenue. Looking to the year-end forecast for GPH, the current call remains similar to ’14 and continues to track behind the 10-yr average. The supporting figures for the 2015 full-year comparative GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-yr average and the day-of-week breakdowns are available to Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking purchasers or Pellucid Publications Members via the Client Login section at the Pellucid website (go to www.pellucidcorp.com for information or to subscribe; for information-seekers we’ll send you a sample of the ’14 1st half actual results to review).
Looking back at April rounds played as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate the facility % Utilization Rate (UR), the positive rounds demand results (+4%) once again trailed the increase in GPH (+8%) resulting in another loss in Utilization for the month (like squandering a par with a 3-putt). For the YtD period, rounds demand remains in positive territory but, similar to the months’ results, trails the positive GPH figures resulting in continued underperformance in Utilization through April. The supporting figures are also contained in the Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications Membership monthly update.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “May is the first truly full national month of the season (forget all that “the season starts in April with the Masters” talk, that’s when people turn on their TVs but much of the north is still just dreaming about consistently warm enough temps to play golf). While it’s nice to start with a gang-busters May, we at least avoided a “big number” (to the negative) on the first hole as we start the season weather-wise about where we were last year. Of our major rounds-producing geographies, only the Desert SW (Phoenix) is showing a significant shortfall in GPH. Turning out attention to the April Utilization figures, we again see what’s becoming a regular pattern; we just can’t seem to capitalize on favorable weather as rounds demand moves in tandem with, but always trails the upticks Mother Nature provides. That pattern is fairly widespread as we see the positive/negative breadth ratio across the 61 major markets coming in a 1:3 with 11 markets showing Utilization gains against 33 showing declines (and most of those sluggish rounds demand not matching positive weather). The big news of the month of May was the record water in Texas and Oklahoma. I was in Dallas last week and can assure that there is no longer a draught in that city but, unfortunately, several of the courses I drove by had only elevated greens peeking through the one big water hazard that used to be a golf course.”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics, including the Revenue and Rate figures, can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to , fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 6/15/15.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service service ($199, 12 reports annually) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2014 State of the Industry, 2013 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (mailto:edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic .
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store .
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
mailto:jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
