At the national level, July came in marginally down as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) registered down 2% vs. Year Ago (YA) at the national level. That result continued to marginally chip away at the positive Year-to-Date (YtD) results which now registers +2% vs. YA. The YtD regional positive/negative breadth ratio slipped slightly but remains positive at 4:1 with 24 regions having favorable weather against 6 regions with unfavorable weather (15 regions fell in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, favorability continued to be considerably stronger in weekdays vs. weekends which will likely have a slight impact on rounds and revenue. Looking to the year-end forecast for GPH, we’re projecting to not be far off the ’14 weather and are projected to trail the 10-yr average (that’s unfortunately a softening vs. our guidance back in January in the State of the Industry). The supporting figures for the 2015 full-year comparative GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-yr average and the day-of-week breakdowns are available to Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking purchasers or Pellucid Publications Members via the Client Login section at the Pellucid website (go to www.pellucidcorp.com for information or to subscribe; for information-seekers we’ll send you a sample of the ’14 1st half actual results to review).
Looking back at June rounds played as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate the facility % Utilization Rate (UR), the decline in rounds demand (-2%) was marginally greater than the decrease in GPH (-1%) resulting in basically flat Utilization for the month. For the YtD period, rounds demand remains retreated to neutral territory and trails the positive GPH figures resulting in continued lower Utilization through June vs. the ’14 Year-end figure. The supporting figures are also contained in the Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications Membership monthly update.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “The July weather results were dominated by negative comps in the East predominately with 9 of 10 regions (stretching from New England to Southern FL) down in GPH and two regions posting double-digit declines. We saw in a number of areas with significant declines that it was the abnormally high heat and accompanying humidity that knocked out a significant number of GPH (New Orleans in particular and the Gulf region bore the brunt of this pattern). The favorable breadth ratio however suggests that a wide number of geographies are getting a little help from Mother Nature this year vs. last year’s disappointment (unfortunately they’re not necessarily the high volume regions or the national picture would show more favorability). Utilization’s another story as unfortunately 27 of 61 markets are trailing GPH in Rounds Demand through the 1st half of the year. There are some success stories however among Pellucid’s Top 25 golf markets with Utilization gains in unlikely places like Philly, Cleveland, Seattle and San Diego. At the national level, while the year’s performance isn’t quite as correlated as PerformanceTrak suggests (their comparative index of Days Open vs. Rounds Played hasn’t budged from 99-101 all year), we’re pretty much showing at the national level that rounds are basically at the whim of weather which is not the optimal pattern. What this suggests is that a) the sum total of our marketing efforts at the national level isn’t really having any impact in generating “impulse play,” b) golfers aren’t playing “make up rounds” when they get trumped by weather (rain or heat) and c) the continuing discounting that we’re doing nationally isn’t creating any incremental demand either; it’s apparently making it more convenient and cheaper for those who wanted to play anyway to play.”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics, including the Revenue and Rate figures, can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 8/15/15.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($199, 12 reports annually) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2014 State of the Industry, 2013 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
