At the national level, November weather was a barnburner as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) registered 49% vs. Year Ago (YA). That result had impact on the Year-to-Date (YtD) figure pushing it up to +3% vs. YA. The YtD regional positive/negative breadth ratio improved to 4:1 with 26 regions having favorable weather against 7 regions with unfavorable weather (the remaining 12 regions fall in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, favorability is relatively balanced across weekdays vs. weekends with both being in positive territory. Looking to the year-end forecast for GPH, we’re seeing continuing upward revision from previous projections and now forecasting that we’ll see a modest gain vs. both the previous year and the 10-year average. The supporting figures for the 2015 full-year comparative GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-year average and the day-of-week breakdowns are available to Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report purchasers or Pellucid Publications Members via the Client Login section at the Pellucid website (go to www.pellucidcorp.com to subscribe or for more information; for information-seekers we’ll send you a sample of the ’14 1st half actual results to review).
Looking back at October rounds played as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate the facility % Utilization Rate (UR), the fractional rounds demand increase was better than the fractional GPH decline producing a fractional gain in Utilization for the month (but that’s now the third month we’ve beat the weather, albeit only marginally each time). For the YtD period, we’re again talking fractional variations but with the fractional rounds demand increase trailing a slightly larger GPH gain resulting in fractionally lower Utilization through October vs. YA. The supporting figures are also contained in the Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications Membership monthly updates.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “From a weather perspective, all one can say is “Wow”! For many geographies, this 4th quarter weather rivals the unprecedented 2012 pattern and is providing an unexpected rounds and revenue (which we take to the bank) dividend as courses here in Chicago even were open this past weekend with temps in the 50s. As always, the weather favorability isn’t universal but it’s pretty widespread east of the Rockies as you’ll see in our Weather Impact map in the December issue of The Pellucid Perspective. On the other hand, west of the Rockies is predominately “in the red” weather-wise which could be a result of the El Nino weather pattern that’s setting up this year. At the market level and focusing on the Top 10 markets as defined by Pellucid, we’re seeing nice Utilization gains in the top 5 while the second 5 are not responding proportionally in rounds demand to the favorable weather results. Details on Utilization at market level and identification of the Top 25 markets are available to Pellucid Publications members. With these results, it’s mathematically assured that the ’15 season will go down in the “W” column at the national level and for the majority of regions and markets. It also appears that rounds will finish in positive territory and likely Utilization will come in basically statistically flat (which isn’t all bad in the new normal of “flat is up”).”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics, including the Revenue and Rate figures, can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 12/15/15.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2014 State of the Industry, 2013 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (mailto:edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
