At the national level, December weather ended with a flame as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) registered +36% vs. Year Ago (YA) which capped a 4th quarter that registered a 19% gain vs. 2014. December’s weather results pushed the Year-to-Date (YtD) figure up to +4% vs. YA. The YtD regional positive/negative breadth ratio held steady at 4:1 with 28 regions having favorable weather against 7 regions with unfavorable weather (the remaining 10 regions fall in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, weekday favorability was modestly higher than weekend results with both well in positive territory. With the entire year in the books, our year end finished higher than the previous forecast year and beat the 10-year average as well. The supporting figures for the 2015 full-year comparative GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-year average and the day-of-week breakdowns are available to Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report purchasers or Pellucid Publications Members via the Client Login section at the Pellucid website (go to www.pellucidcorp.com to subscribe or for more information; for information-seekers we’ll send you a sample of the ’15 1st half actual results to review).
Looking back at November rounds played as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate the facility % Utilization Rate (UR), the significant rounds demand increase lagged the near-record GPH increase producing a decline in Utilization for the month (but not expected to get commensurate rounds out of unexpected Nov. favorability for much of the North/Northeast). For the YtD period, we’re seeing a nice uptick in rounds demand but trailing a very favorable weather year so Utilization will be down slightly for the year. We continue to see a continuance of the last several years’ pattern; rounds following (but always slightly trailing) weather up or down. The supporting figures are also contained in the Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications Membership monthly updates.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “From a weather perspective, for most of the US regions, 2015 went out like a lion although, here in Chicago, it finally caught up with us shortly before Christmas and we’re now in the “freezer” with a snow/ice cover (no one has told GolfNow or TeeOff.com though, I’m still getting daily email deals to go out and play…). The good fortune was widespread although one can see a demarcation between northern and eastern half of the country (strong gains) while the western and southern quarters weren’t quite as fortunate (but they were still generally up). The good news at the market level for the Top 5 US markets is that two of them are up in Utilization for the year with the other three being in neutral territory so, overall at the top, we’re seeing good performance vs. the weather. Complete details on market-level Utilization down to 61 US markets are available to Pellucid Publication Members and subscribers to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service.
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics, including the Revenue and Rate figures, can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 1/18/16.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2014 State of the Industry, 2013 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (mailto:edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
