After a down opening month to the year, February’s results bounced back strongly as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) registered +39% vs. Year Ago (YA). That result more than overcame the January deficit as the Year-to-Date (YtD) now stands +17% through two months. The YtD regional positive/negative breadth ratio is neutral at 1:1 with 13 regions having favorable weather against 9 regions with unfavorable weather (3 in the neutral zone of +/- 2%, the remaining 20 are out-of-season). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, favorability is concentrated in weekends vs. weekdays. Looking to the year-end forecast for GPH, we’re seeing basically parity vs. the previous year and the 10-year average. The supporting figures for the 2016 full-year comparative GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-year average and the day-of-week breakdowns are available to Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report purchasers or Pellucid Publications Members via the Client Login section at the Pellucid website (go to www.pellucidcorp.com to subscribe or for more information; for information-seekers we’ll send you a sample of the ’15 1st half actual results to review).
Rounds demand data for January as published by Golf Datatech was not available prior to our self-imposed weather reporting deadline of the 12th of the month. With the departure of the PGA of America’s PerformanceTrak there is also no longer an alternate source for this data or for Revenue reporting so it will be interesting to see how rounds demand tracking evolves and whether or not there will be a 2.0 version of revenue tracking emerge in ’16 to fill the void or improve upon the decade-plus effort of the PGA in this area. We’re going the wrong way on this visibility, veracity and understanding of industry performance dimension. On the other hand, we concur with the PGA’s assessment that such efforts can’t be either charity or goodwill; collecting and presenting information costs money and there has to be a viable economic model or the industry will simply get what they pay for (nothing).
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “Talk about a “bounce,” this is one of the stronger February month “comps” we’ve seen in our tracking. Looking at the map and the key winter season geographies, the green arrows are fairly widespread across the SE coast, Texas and California. The two non-beneficiaries of February’s weather bonanza were the NW Coast and Desert SW geographies (for some reason they are often counter-cyclical to widespread national weather favorability). Here in the upper Midwest, courses are again opening this year in mid-March which is an encouraging sign. Historically, an early opening has gotten core golfers out and “in the rhythm” earlier in the season and, according to one of the leading industry analysts, helps drive stronger golf equipment sell-through which creates the potential for stronger consumer takeaway which begets stronger 2nd orders and a virtuous cycle for the manufacturers. We’ll see if that pattern plays out this year.”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics, including the Revenue and Rate figures, can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 3/15/16.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2014 State of the Industry, 2013 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (mailto:edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
