Halfway through the calendar year and with the 2nd of the 4 “core season” months in the books, June weather was up marginally as the national level Golf Playable Hours (GPH) came in fractionally above (~1%) Year Ago (YA) slightly reducing the Year-to-Date favorability to +4%. The YtD regional positive/negative breadth ratio remained neutral at 1:1 with 17 regions having favorable weather against 17 regions with unfavorable weather (the remaining 11 in the neutral zone of +/- 2%, all regions are now in-season). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, favorability continues to be concentrated in weekdays vs. weekends which is likely a slight headwind to revenue (given weekend pricing is more favorable to the facility). With 6 months now in the books and weather continuing to be a positive indicator, the $64M question is, “How much of this weather favorability will we retain by year end?” Pellucid subscribers know the answer to this question because the supporting figures for the 2016 full-year comparative GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-year average and the day-of-week breakdowns are available in the Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications suite via the Client Login section at the Pellucid website. Cognilogic facility weather impact subscribers also know these figures for their individual facility (go to www.pellucidcorp.com to subscribe or for more information; for information-seekers we’ll send you a sample of the ’15 1st half actual results to review).
Rounds demand data for May as published by Golf Datatech reported the monthly figure at -2% vs. YA and the YtD level registering at +2%. Comparing that result to Pellucid’s previously-reported GPH results, we registered a slight decline in Utilization (April’s gain proved to be non-repeatable) with declining rounds demand not keeping pace with the flat GPH results. For the YtD period, at the national level Utilization continues to be in negative territory with positive demand continuing to slightly lag the more favorable weather. Utilization figures for the month at the National and 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) level are also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “The June results cap a 2nd quarter that was marginally negative in Weather Impact (-1%) so the YtD results are the favorable carryover from Q1. This would somewhat explain why Utilization trails given that Q2 and Q3 are more important in rounds contribution than Q1 and Q4. The YtD weather has been benevolent to the East Coast and the NE along with TX (in 2 of 3 the state’s regions). The Midwest and GL are a mixed bag of results while the Desert SW and CA coast have basically played to a draw weather-wise compared to ’15. In YtD Utilization, among Pellucid’s Top 25 Golf Markets, we’re seeing nice gains in Dallas and Denver while notable laggards are Cincinnati and Philadelphia. The net is weather has nationally not helped or hurt us and, as we’ve seen in the last several years, rounds are largely following weather which means we go where Mother Nature drags us. For facilities that found stabilization and were able to either break even or make money in ’15, ’16’s results are likely tolerable. For those facilities that were trailing in economic match play in ’15, they’re finding themselves still down the same number with one less hole to play.”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 7/15/16.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2015 State of the Industry, 2015 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
