October came in flat vs. its ’15 counterpart as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) at the national level registered +1% vs. Year Ago (YA). Year-to-Date favorability remained at +1%. Beneath that placid national picture though we saw key regions registering a range from +17% to -8% so we basically got there by opposing forces which is characteristic of our shoulder season months. The YtD regional positive/negative breadth ratio remained unfavorable at 1:2 with 10 regions having favorable weather against 15 regions with unfavorable weather (the neutral zone regions of +/- 2% represented the majority result comprised of the remaining 20 regions). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, weather favorability continued to skew to weekdays vs. weekdays which invokes a slight headwind to revenue (given weekday pricing is less favorable to facilities). With 10 months now in the books and the highest volume months behind us, we don’t expect much drama in the closing 2 months. Pellucid subscribers have access each month to our “call” for year-end 2016 GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-year average, the regional swings beneath the national figure and the day-of-week breakdowns via the Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications suite through the Client Login section at the Pellucid website. Cognilogic facility weather impact subscribers also know these figures for their individual facility (go to www.pellucidcorp.com to subscribe or for more information and in exchange we’ll send you a sample of the ’16 1st half actual results to review).
Rounds demand data for September as published by Golf Datatech reported the monthly figure at -2% vs. YA (2nd consecutive month of decline unfortunately) which dragged the YtD level down a full point to flat vs. ’15. Comparing that result to Pellucid’s previously-reported GPH results, we registered a slight decline in Utilization for the month as the demand decrease again exceeded the month’s fractional GPH decline. For the YtD period, at the national level Utilization still looks like a draw with flat rounds trailing the slight favorability in weather. Utilization figures for the month at the National and 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) level are also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “October’s results represented the east (of the Mississippi) vs. the west where the east benefitted from some nice weather improvements vs. ’15 and the west, well, not so much. One particular outlier was Florida South which took a beating and basically wiped out all their previous favorability in one month (remember, there was that slight storm that blew through Florida). Looking back at September Utilization, the encouraging performance we saw in several of the key summer months (i.e. gains beating both favorable and unfavorable weather results) unfortunately is waning in the closing months so we still haven’t figured out the repetitive key to driving rounds counter to what Mother Nature provides. For the year, the overall storyline continues to be that we go where the weather drags us by and large as evidenced by 48 of 61 markets being in the neutral zone for Utilization (+/- 2 pts). More encouragingly, 8 markets continue to post Utilization gains; to find out which markets are driving Utilization success and by how much, you can get that level of detail by subscribing to any of the weather impact services described above. The point is, it can be done and several markets are showing us how.”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 11/15/16.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2015 State of the Industry, 2015 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
