November was truly a month for giving thanks for golf owner/operators as the month recorded near-record Golf Playable Hours (GPH) at the national level and +10% vs. Year Ago (YA). Year-to-Date GPH favorability gained to now register +2% vs. YA. Favorability was widespread with only 4 regions posting negative “comps” (concentrated in New England). The spectacular November results pushed the YtD regional positive/negative breadth ratio from a previous negative distribution to a positive one at 2:1 with 15 regions having favorable weather against 9 regions with unfavorable weather (the neutral zone regions of +/- 2% represented the majority result comprised of the remaining 21 regions). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, weather favorability continued to skew to weekdays vs. weekends which invokes a slight headwind to revenue (given weekday pricing is less favorable to facilities). Contradicting our last month assertion that, with only 2 months remaining, we wouldn’t see much movement, the November results on weather did in fact have a meaningful impact. Pellucid subscribers have access each month to our “call” for year-end 2016 GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-year average, the regional swings beneath the national figure and the day-of-week breakdowns via the Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications suite through the Client Login section at the Pellucid website. Cognilogic facility weather impact subscribers also know these figures for their individual facility (go to www.pellucidcorp.com to subscribe or for more information and in exchange we’ll send you a sample of the ’16 1st half actual results to review).
Rounds demand data for October as published by Golf Datatech reported the monthly figure at +1% vs. YA (breaks our 2-month negative trend) which didn’t materially impact the YtD level remaining also at +1% vs. ’15. Comparing that result to Pellucid’s previously-reported GPH results, we registered a fractional decline in Utilization for the month as the demand increase basically mirrored the month’s marginal GPH gain. For the YtD period at the national level, Utilization still looks like a draw with marginally positive rounds trailing the slightly higher marginal weather gains. Utilization figures for the month at the National and 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) level are also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “November’s map of results was a “sea of green” (gains greater than2% vs. YA) that spanned most all of our 45 weather-based regions. Twenty-three regions posted double-digit gains in GPH vs. YA which is a combination of abnormally good weather and lower base rates in the northern climates (i.e. it’s easier to have a 10% increase on 50 GPH month than a 10% gain on a 300 GPH month). The New England regions were notable as the “red spots” on the map with GPH declines ranging from 3%-21% for the month. Looking back at October Utilization, although the national rate is basically flat (rounds matching weather), at the 61 market level among our Top 25 market subset, we saw Pittsburgh as the top performer with a 10 point gain (wow!) while Seattle was the biggest loser giving up 6 Utilization points. For the year, the overall storyline continues to be that we go where the weather drags us by and large as evidenced by 39 of 61 markets being in the neutral zone for Utilization (+/- 2 pts) and an even balance of ups and downs outside that with 11 markets gaining and 11 losing. Taking the optimist’s perspective, 11 markets continue to post Utilization gains; to find out which markets are driving Utilization success and by how much, you can get that level of detail by subscribing to any of the weather impact services described above (hint, 9 of them are in our Top 25 universe). The point is, it can be done and several (key) markets are showing us how.”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 12/15/16.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2015 State of the Industry, 2015 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
