April weather rebounded nicely following the big red numbers in March as Available Rounds were +8% at the national level vs. Year Ago (YA). That puts us solidly back in the green for the YtD period at +4% through April. Regional breadth also moved into favorable territory at 2:1 with 23 regions with favorable weather “comps” and 14 unfavorable (the remaining 8 regions are in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, weather favorability is relatively balanced across weekdays vs. weekends. With 4 months “played” in this season, the operative question is how weather will treat us for the remaining 8 months and whether this favorability will increase, hold or fade. Pellucid subscribers have access each month to our forecast for ’17 year-end GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-year average, the regional breadth details and the day-of-week breakdowns via the Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications suite through the Client Login section at the Pellucid website. Cognilogic facility weather impact subscribers also know these figures for their individual facility (go to www.pellucidcorp.com to subscribe or register for more information and in exchange we’ll send you a sample of the ’16 1st half actual results to review).
Played Rounds data for March published by Golf Datatech was a silver lining in a cloud as Played Rounds declined 10% vs. YA. The silver lining was that wasn’t nearly as bad as the previously published Available Rounds figure which declined 20% so we actually saw a Utilization gain in a poor Rounds month (that’s why we invented the weather impact capability and metrics in the first place). This produced a 6 point increase in Utilization vs. the ’16 YE figure. For the YtD period, Utilization lags the benchmark with a 4% decline in Played Rounds compared to a 2% increase in Available Rounds. Utilization figures for the month at the National and 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) level are also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “April weather favorability was largely driven by nice increases in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions that we track. This is aided by the fact that April ’16 was an unusually poor month so the benchmark is depressed. Texas obviously took some hits (as you’ve seen in the national headlines, hail, torrential rains, you name it, they saw it in April) which depressed both their Available Rounds for the month and YtD and I anticipate seeing that reflected in some significant red numbers for April when the Golf Datatech figures are published next month. The Southeast and Florida regions saw some setbacks in April weather but not enough to offset their previous gains so they’re still largely in positive territory through April. The Pacific NW continues to take a (weather) beating, while the SW holds its own and California gets a split decision between North and South. The Utilization gain in March was not unexpected; traditionally in the shoulder seasons when weather is significantly better/worse (+/-10%) we don’t see the Played Rounds expand/contract on a 1:1 basis and that generally produces a Utilization gain. While an encouraging sign (i.e. rounds didn’t go down 20%), it doesn’t necessarily represent operational excellence or act as an indicator that we proactively drove better results around the weather. In any case, we’ll take the positive Utilization and move on to April where we should get a modest uptick in rounds at a minimum based on the weather favorability.”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 5/15/17.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2015 State of the Industry, 2015 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
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