Pellucid has just released its annual update to the National Consumer Franchise Scorecard and there’s a silver lining in the cloud of golfer base decline; we lost the fewest number of golfers in one year since 2009. Beyond that, the supporting demographic and involvement breakdowns continue to defy the “alternate reality” industry accounts as outlined in the below highlights:
• Golfers and Participation Rate – Basically flat for the year-to-year comparison; what we don’t know is whether this represents a support point for future growth or a ledge providing pause prior to continued declines
• Involvement Level of Golfers – For the second consecutive year, we saw erosion in the Committed golfer group (40+ rds/yr, likely trading down to Involved frequency vs. leaving the game) as well as in the Casual golfer group (1-9 rds/yr, likely leaving the game); while the other industry sources’ narrative that we’re only losing “fringe” golfers could be true, we’re not sure how one sugar coats a few hundred thousand Committeds downshifting to Involved frequency
• Demographic shifts – Contrary to the mantra that there’s a renaissance among females, juniors and junior females, all of the golfer loss by gender was attributable to females while juniors, along with early Millennials (18-34), comprised the totality of losses by lifestage. The Silent and Baby Boomer generations continued to carry the participation weight of the industry on their shoulders; you should kiss each and every one that comes into your facility (and then “Like” all the Millennials, they crave that more than real attention…)
• 2020 projections for the golfer base size – The softening in the rate of golfer decline adjusts our 2020 projection upward slightly but it’s still likely to be sub-20M unless we’ve now lost all the “not really golfers” that we can or one of the grow-the-game initiatives (or TopGolf, I see we’re now counting that as well) “grows” legs and scales to some level that impacts the national figures for ’17
The Excel workbook with the summary and detail figures includes the following facts:
• Core metrics of # of golfers, Participation Rate, Frequency Rate and Play Rate (rds/capita/yr) for ’16, change vs. ’15 (# and %) and 5-yr trend figure
• Involvement groups, size, change and share of total golfers for ’16, comparison to ’15 and 5-yr trend figure
• Demographics, # of golfers, Frequency Rate, Play Rate for ’16 vs. ’15 and 5-yr trend broken out by:
o Gender – male vs. female comparisons
o Age – 8 age groups and 5 summary groups (Juniors, Early Career, Mid-Career, Late Career, Seniors)
o Income – 7 income groups and 3 summary groups (<$35K, $35-$75K, $75K+) There are two ways to order and obtain the industry's definitive consumer franchise accounting: 1. Become a Pellucid Publications Member ($495/yr, 40% discount vs. purchasing separately) - PPM subscribers receive all Pellucid publications as part of their annual membership. This includes: • Outside the Ropes newsletter (in both versions) • State of the Industry (in both versions) • Weather Impact Analysis - PPM: Geographic (Nat'l/Reg'l/Mkts) Weather Impact Tracking - PPM-Local: Cognilogic web-based weather impact, annual user license (facility-level Golf Playable Hours/Capacity Rounds, from yesterday to 10-yr Norm) • Market Analysis/Health Ranking - PPM: Top 25 US Golf Markets Scorecard and Health Ranking - PPM-Local: Golf Local Market Analysis, data workbook (8-dimensional profile of 3 draw areas around the facility including demographics, # of golfers, participation/frequency/play rate, Rounds Potential Indices (Income, Age, Ethnicity), Supply/Demand balance, Supply distribution, Rounds demand and Velocity (rounds per 18-hole equivalent) by Pellucid 5 facility types • National Consumer Franchise Health Scorecard; consumer base size, demographics, involvement groups, churn rate, projections for 2020 etc. (in both versions) 2. Purchase the National Consumer Franchise Health Scorecard via our website ($199) Possibly this year's "not-as-bad news" (we don't make the news, we just report it) will make it slightly easier to rationalize paying for factual information about the macro industry consumer base health. As always, it's your choice to either be armed with accurate facts and trends or follow the industry associations' siren song that change is "just ahead." For those interested in a sample of the report, you can use the Register Here for Excel Workbook Sample button on our product information page at this address [https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports/national-golf-consumer-franchise-health-scorecard] and we’ll send it along for your review.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
