Do you want the good news or the bad news first? OK, we’ll start with the good news. The golf industry had the smallest net loss of golfers in ’16 of any year since ’09. The bad news is that all 3 of our core metrics ended in the neutral zone compared to the ’15 figures. Underneath that, there are several concerning shifts in involvement and demographics but at least frequency continues to rise based on a new “hybrid” methodology we’re adopting which mixes the consumer survey golfer count and the facility reported rounds demand (explained below and quantified in the full issue).
Of the Pellucid core consumer base health metrics (Play, Participation and Frequency Rates), all 3 hovered around flat with a silver lining for the optimists that the ’16 golfer base rate of decline shallowed when compared to the 5-yr Compound Annual Change Rate (CACR). Beneath that, of the 14 component measures, we continue to see unfavorable breadth with 4 up and 7 down (remaining measures are in neutral zone or +/-2%), this, however, is also an improvement over last year’s breadth of 1 up and 10 down. In this issue we’ll reprise our annual framework for reviewing the size, shape and trends of the golf consumer base and why the ’16 results earn the description of lateral motion:
• I’ll explain and define the core metrics and component measures which comprise the Pellucid National Consumer Franchise Scorecard from Play Rate (Rounds-per-Capita-per Year) to Involvement Groups (Committeds, Involveds, Casuals). New this year is calculating Frequency Rate by mixing the consumer survey golfer count and the facility reported rounds demand figure which makes the results slightly more positive (a first for Pellucid?)
• I’ll provide the 2016 consumer survey results and commentary on the “advancers” and the “decliners” and my interpretation of the consumer base “storyline.” This will encompass the number of golfers, frequency (both our new and legacy views), gender, age, income and involvement groups. I’ll leave the “hope” measures of latent demand, engagement and lives touched to the NGF, WGF and First Tee respectively
• I’ll outline my fact-supported opinion that the “hopeful” elements of the ’16 survey results are the slowing decline rate in number of golfers and the fact that the Baby Boomers (55+) continue their love affair with our sport. Beneath that, the “reality” elements of the ’16 results are that all the targeted groups for player development over the past decade had negative results compared to ’15. Darn.
• Finally, I’ll revisit the ’17 strategy which needs to foremost address retention and increasing frequency among retained golfers while we continue as an industry to muddle through myriad, unsuccessful options for meaningful player development
For our subscribers, read on to get the supporting facts to the above arguments. For our Executive Summary recipients, you can get the rest of the story one of three ways (all can be previewed and purchased at Pellucid’s website (www.pellucidcorp.com)):
1. Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership for $495/yr. Annual subscribers get access to all Pellucid publications (Outside the Ropes monthly digital newsletter, annual State of the Industry report portfolio (PowerPoint presentation, PDF commentary report, access to Orlando video of presentation), monthly Geographic Weather Impact Tracking (US, 45 regions, 61 markets), Top 25 US Golf Markets Ranking Scorecard (25+ dimensions and ranking for largest 25 markets) and the National Consumer Franchise Health Scorecard (expanded data and tables underlying this issue’s summary figures)
2. Subscribe to OtR, 12 monthly issues for $130/yr with a money-back guarantee if you’re not satisfied at any time during your subscription. Subscribers also get access to the historical archive of past issues (50+) via the members-only section of the Pellucid website.
3. Purchase single issues (including this one) for $14.95 per issue; click here to view available issues by title and select those of interest to purchase and download.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
