After a nice April weather rebound May took all of that back as Available Rounds for the month were -5% at the national level vs. Year Ago (YA). That now backs off the YtD figure to +1% through the first 5 months of the season. Regional breadth also retreated into neutral territory at 1:1 with 18 regions with favorable weather “comps” and 16 unfavorable (the remaining 11 regions are in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, weather favorability is relatively balanced across weekdays vs. weekends (Wednesdays have been unusually good and Fridays unusually poor, go figure). With 5 months “played” in this season, the key question is whether we’ll go up, down or sideways in weather for the balance of the year and how good/bad/indifferent Mother Nature might be for the remaining 7 months. Pellucid subscribers have access each month to our forecast for ’17 year-end GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-year average, the regional breadth details and the day-of-week breakdowns via the Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications suite through the Client Login section at the Pellucid website. Cognilogic facility weather impact subscribers also know these figures for their individual facility (go to www.pellucidcorp.com to subscribe or register for more information and in exchange we’ll send you a sample of the ’16 1st half actual results to review).
Played Rounds data for April published by Golf Datatech delivered the double whammy to the poor May weather as rounds demand declined 2% vs. YA. Coupled with our previously published Available Rounds figure (+8%) we can’t blame that decline on “poor weather” and the resulting math produced a 5 point decrease in Utilization vs. the ’16 YE figure. For the YtD period, Utilization again lags the benchmark with a 3% decline in Played Rounds compared to a 5% increase in Available Rounds. Utilization figures for the month at the National and 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) level are also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “May was one of those “sleeper months” where there weren’t any significant weather making national headlines anywhere so people’s perception of the month is generally “same old same old.” Tracking the weather at market level though and aggregating those results (and also weighting by rounds contribution) shows us that months without major weather news can still have major impact as the 5% drop in Available Rounds will be felt when May’s Played Rounds results are published. It would have been better if the April and May weather pictures were reversed given the volume contributions for the two months but we have to play the hand we’re dealt. The regions showing decline were a combination of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley as well as Texas and the Gulf Coast. On the positive side, the SE Coast area bucked the tide and continues to have a good weather year through May. On the Utilization side, I have to eat my words from last month’s press release where I predicted positive rounds results for April based on the +8% weather results. It just proves that, while the weather and rounds correlation has been relatively strong over the recent past, good weather doesn’t guarantee increased rounds lest our owner/operators forget that they too have a real and constant responsibility to either accelerate favorability or try and offset unfavorability (we’ll see how they did at that in the May rounds results).”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 6/15/17.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2015 State of the Industry, 2015 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
