June weather results disappointed coming in below the 10-year Norm as well as last June as Available Rounds for the month were -4% at the national level vs. Year Ago (YA). That now reduces the Year-to-Date (YtD) figure to basically flat through the first half of the season. Regional breadth deteriorated slightly but remained in neutral territory at 1:1 with 13 regions with favorable weather “comps” and 18 unfavorable (the remaining 14 regions are in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, weather favorability is slightly biased to weekdays vs. weekends (interestingly, Thursdays have been unusually poor). So we’ve basically played to a weather “draw” through June; the key question for operators should be whether the 2nd half will deliver better/same/worse weather results and where we’ll land at year end. Pellucid subscribers have access each month to our forecast for ’17 year-end GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-year average, the regional breadth details and the day-of-week breakdowns via the Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications suite through the Client Login section at the Pellucid website. Cognilogic facility weather impact subscribers also know these figures for their individual facility (go to www.pellucidcorp.com to subscribe or register for more information and in exchange we’ll send you a sample of the ’16 1st half actual results to review).
Played Rounds data for May published by Golf Datatech basically followed Pellucid’s previously-published Golf Playable Hours (GPH) results with demand registering -5% vs. YA. For the YtD period, Utilization continues to lag the benchmark as the -4% rounds demand figure trails basically flat GPH. Utilization figures for the month at the National and 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) level are also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “June’s negative weather results were driven by the Great Lakes, Texas and weakness in the SE region. The -4% figure is slightly concerning for June in that we generally see more moderation in the “comps” once we enter the core season months (Jun-Aug). That made me curious regarding whether the deficit was due to an unusually good June in ’16 but, using our 10-year Norm comparison, it appeared that the month was also meaningfully off that benchmark as well. It simply was, at the national level, a poor June for weather no matter how you look at it. Given historical correlations, we’re likely to see a deficit in June rounds when published next month of 3-7% which will make our 2nd half climb to get back to even with the ’16 results even more challenging. As always, there are regions and markets which are experiencing favorability YtD and that trend seems to be better for northern/eastern regions vs. southern/western regions the way the year is shaping up. At the market level, the SE coastal markets are “in the green” as are the northern plains markets while the west coast markets aren’t as fortunate by-and-large through June. Utilization continues to be a concern as rounds demand declines slightly exceed the poorer weather at the national level but select markets are also bucking that trend with Dallas and Houston being poster-child markets YtD posting Utilization gains (actual rounds demand increases) against unfavorable weather. Of interest is the fact that the majority result (28 of 61 markets) is neutral Utilization which reinforces the point Stuart and I have repeatedly made which is we’re in a period of demand basically tracking to weather. This suggests, to me, that we’re basically better farmers than marketers. The other possible scenario is that golfers are consumers immune to marketing but we have clients and actual successful results for this season that suggest otherwise.”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 7/15/17.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2015 State of the Industry, 2015 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
