July weather results posted a timely “green” comparable as Available Rounds for the month were +3% at the national level vs. Year Ago (YA). That dragged the Year-to-Date (YtD) into the black but still within our neutral range of +/-2% so weather continued to be statistically flat through the first 7 months. Regional breadth for the YtD period remained in neutral territory at 1:1 with 16 weather-favorable regions countered by 15 weather-unfavorable regions (the remaining 14 regions are in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, weather favorability is basically balanced between weekdays vs. weekends (but there are considerable variances by day-of-week). We are seeing a shift however in the full-year forecast for those who want to know if it will get better or worse. Pellucid subscribers have access each month to our forecast for ’17 year-end GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-year average, the regional breadth details and the day-of-week breakdowns via the Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications suite through the Client Login section at the Pellucid website. Cognilogic facility weather impact subscribers also know these figures for their individual facility (go to www.pellucidcorp.com to subscribe or register for more information and in exchange we’ll send you a sample of the ’16 1st half actual results to review).
Played Rounds data for June published by Golf Datatech came in at -3% again following Pellucid’s previously-published Golf Playable Hours (GPH) results producing basically flat Utilization for the month. For the YtD period however, Datatech’s reported rounds decline of 4% significantly trails the weather figures resulting in lower Utilization compared to YA. Figures for the month at the National and 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) level are also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “July’s weather dividend was meaningful for a summer month and relatively widespread so we should get a nice demand boost from this when Datatech publishes the July rounds figures. Favorability was slightly more prevalent east of the Rockies and more to the south than the north within the East-Central geographies. The SE Coast is having a particularly good run of weather compared to ’16. Despite the fact that we had several major adverse weather events that made national news, those incidents were outweighed by the balance of the month and the large unaffected geography; hence the importance of not basing monthly weather perceptions on the national headlines which, while unfortunate for the areas affected, don’t reflect the national condition. Rounds demand at the market level continues to largely track to weather with 33 of 61 markets registering neutral Utilization but, of the non-neutral markets there’s a significant bias to lower vs. higher Utilization. The good news in this result is that for roughly half of the markets, we can use the weather as a proxy for demand trends which means the year end forecast should be of high interest to participants in those markets. Among Pellucid’s Top 25 US Golf Markets, in the positive Utilization column Dallas (#10) and Houston (#6) continue to lead while Minneapolis (#22) is the poster-child for lower Utilization behind improved weather and declining rounds YtD.”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go towww.pellucidcorp.com, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 8/15/17.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2015 State of the Industry, 2015 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
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