August weather results posted a 2nd consecutive positive comparable result as Available Rounds for the month were +3% at the national level vs. Year Ago (YA). That added marginally to the Year-to-Date (YtD) figure which is in positive territory but only fractionally which means it continues to track in our neutral range of +/-2% with 8 months played. Regional breadth for the YtD period remained in neutral territory at 1:1 with 16 weather-favorable regions countered by 14 weather-unfavorable regions (the remaining 15 regions are in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, weather countenance continues to be relatively balanced between weekdays vs. weekends (but there are considerable variances by day-of-week, Fridays and Sundays are of particular interest). The full-year forecast is stabilizing (i.e. it’s not bouncing as much month-to-month as we get closer) and it provides better guidance on what to expect for the balance of the year and whether operators should be saving or spending money down the stretch. Pellucid subscribers have access each month to our forecast for ’17 year-end GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-year average, the regional breadth details and the day-of-week breakdowns via the Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications suite through the Client Login section at the Pellucid website. Cognilogic facility weather impact subscribers also know these figures for their individual facility (go to www.pellucidcorp.com to subscribe or register for more information and in exchange we’ll send you a sample of the ’16 1st half actual results to review).
Played Rounds data for July published by Golf Datatech came in at -2% which diverged from Pellucid’s previously-published Golf Playable Hours (GPH) results producing a lower Utilization Rate for the month. For the YtD period, this widened the Utilization deficit as rounds have declined against basically flat weather. Figures for the month at the National and 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) level are also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “Obviously Hurricane Harvey and its devastating impact on the South Texas area headlined not only the weather news but also the national news in general. The impact of the storm and its collateral damage will be felt by both the local economy and the golf economy for months to come. Our thoughts and prayers are with those in the impacted areas as well as the first responders and countless volunteers and we trust that people will give generously to their aid relief organization of choice to help them rebuild. Looking beyond Harvey at the national level for August, we actually had favorability which was fairly widespread highlighted by unusual double-digit gains in GPH for key regions Florida North, Ohio Valley Central and Southeast Coastal North (unusual because we don’t often see double-digit swings in the core season months). In compiling the August weather numbers I was reminded that, for most of the country, “peak weather” is now behind us as the days shorten and in September we’ll start losing available hours as the temperatures in the far northern reaches begin to drop for the Fall. There’s still plenty of golf to be played, it’s just we’ll be playing it in a narrowing weather window as we do each year (and fighting football season which is already upon us). At the market level, we continue to largely track to weather with 37 of 61 markets registering neutral Utilization but, of the non-neutral markets there continue to be more “trailers” than “leaders”. The rounds/weather correlation however gives us continued confidence that facilities in over half the markets could use the full year forecast as a proxy for demand over the balance of the year. Among Pellucid’s Top 25 US Golf Markets for the YtD period, in the positive Utilization column Dallas (#10) and Atlanta (#19) continue to lead while Minneapolis (#22) continues to lead the Utilization laggards behind a double-digit improvement in weather but declining rounds.”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 9/15/17.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2015 State of the Industry, 2015 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
