September weather results were neutral as Available Rounds change for the month was 0% at the national level vs. Year Ago (YA). That simply extended the previous Year-to-Date (YtD) figure which is also basically flat but remaining fractionally in positive territory which means it continues to fall in our neutral range of +/-2% with 9 months played. Regional breadth for the YtD period remained in neutral territory at 1:1 with 14 weather-favorable regions countered by 15 weather-unfavorable regions (the remaining 16 regions are in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, weather countenance swung significantly to the weekends which should be a slight positive factor as it relates to revenue. Unfortunately, the full-year forecast was revised down meaningfully this month which suggests, compared to last year’s finish, the best of our season’s weather now lies behind us (even for the 12 month markets). For those interested in knowing the extent of the weather “clawback” in Q4, Pellucid subscribers have access each month to our forecast for ’17 year-end GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-year average, the regional breadth details and the day-of-week breakdowns via the Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications suite through the Client Login section at the Pellucid website. Cognilogic facility weather impact subscribers also know these figures for their individual facility (go to www.pellucidcorp.com to subscribe or register for more information and in exchange we’ll send you a sample of the ’17 1st half actual results to review).
Played Rounds data for August published by Golf Datatech came in at +1% which lagged Pellucid’s previously-published Golf Playable Hours (GPH) results producing a lower Utilization Rate for the 2nd consecutive month. For the YtD period, this also slightly widened the Utilization deficit as rounds have declined against marginally positive weather (which should squelch the inevitable industry cries of “it’s the weather in ’17”). Figures for the month at the National and 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) level are also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “Following Harvey’s South Texas havoc on golf, September featured Irma’s lashing of the key golf state of Florida which is only partially factored into the September weather results as we don’t have a rules-based, automated way to determine residual damage and closures to golf courses in the affected area. We did register a 6% decline year-over-year for the month but anyone who watched the news or was unfortunate enough to be in the area impacted knows that the golf impact in those markets was much more. Offsetting that, the SE Coast is having a terrific comparable weather year and the Great Lakes was the recipient of extremely favorable and extended warm temperatures for much of September. Whether that offers any competition to the collegiate football season openers and the Big 10 following remains to be seen when Golf Datatech publishes their rounds figures next month (I’m going to bet against a comparable uptick in rounds based on colleague Stuart Lindsay’s “golfers are more like bears than squirrels” theorem). At the market level, we continue to largely track to weather with 40 of 61 markets registering neutral Utilization but, of the non-neutral markets there continue to be more “laggards” than “leaders”. The rounds/weather correlation however gives us continued confidence that facilities in over half the markets could use the full year forecast as a proxy for demand over the balance of the year (hint, hint). Among Pellucid’s Top 25 US Golf Markets for the YtD period, in the positive Utilization column only Miami (#14, ironically after Irma’s visit) is posting a gain as they’re holding rounds against unfavorable weather while Minneapolis (#22) retains the crown of largest laggard with the double-whammy of rounds down against favorable weather. ”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 10/15/17.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2015 State of the Industry, 2015 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
