October weather results were dismal as Available Rounds change for the month was -8% at the national level vs. Year Ago (YA). Due to the magnitude of the drop, that put a slight dent in the previous Year-to-Date (YtD) figure which swung from fractionally positive to fractionally negative for the year (still within our Neutral range though of +/-2%). Regional breadth for the YtD period swung to negative, as several formerly neutral regions slipped into negative territory, at 1:2 with 8 weather-favorable regions countered by 16 weather-unfavorable regions (the remaining 21 regions are in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, weather countenance is now relatively balanced across the days with Friday as the notable, negative standout through the end of October. As we successfully forecast last month, the 4th quarter is likely not going to be our weather friend as the full-year forecast was again modified downward from previous estimates. For those interested in knowing the extent of the weather damage in Q4, Pellucid subscribers have access each month to our forecast for ’17 year-end GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-year average, the regional breadth details and the day-of-week breakdowns via the Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications suite through the Client Login section at the Pellucid website. Cognilogic facility weather impact subscribers also know these figures for their individual facility (go to www.pellucidcorp.com to subscribe or register for more information and in exchange we’ll send you a sample of the ’17 1st half actual results to review).
Played Rounds data for September published by Golf Datatech gave us a nice surprise at +2% which handily beat Pellucid’s previously-published Golf Playable Hours (GPH) results producing a Utilization Rate gain for the month. For the YtD period, the September gain slightly shrunk the Utilization deficit as the long-term pattern continues of demand basically following weather trends (for the optimists, that means barring natural disasters the sky won’t fall on rounds demand; for the pessimists, that means we’re unable to grow demand beyond the narrow weather variances). Figures for the month at the National and 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) level are also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “October was pretty discouraging across a wide swath of the US with Florida, the Great Lakes, Texas and the inland SE all taking significant hits. The SE Coast continues to be a weather bright spot for the year and October was relatively benign for them protecting previous solid gains. At the market level for Utilization for the month, we saw some significant swings including San Francisco (rounds decline 11% against 4% weather favorability?), and Cincinnati (35% gain in rounds against flat weather, wow!). For the YtD Utilization, we continue to largely track to weather with 39 of 61 markets registering neutral Utilization but, of the non-neutral markets there continue to be more “laggards” than “leaders”. Among Pellucid’s Top 25 US Golf Markets for the YtD period, in the positive Utilization column only Miami (#14) is posting a 2 points or greater gain as they’re holding rounds (even after Irma’s visit) against significantly unfavorable weather while Minneapolis (#22) continues its reign as the largest laggard with the double-whammy of rounds down against favorable weather.”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 11/15/17.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2015 State of the Industry, 2015 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click hereOrder Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
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